Episode
SBSW Stock: BUY Call - All 4 Mines Dug Less And Sibanye Still Posted A Record H1 2026
- Published
- Sep 2, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 890
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Summary
Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW) H1 2026 — SBSW went in at $11.85 and closed the reaction session at $11.66 (-1.6%) - a record half-year, and the tape shrugged. It is 44.8% below its January close of $21.12 and 45.8% above its July low of $8.00. Every one of Sibanye-Stillwater's four producing operations mined LESS metal in the six months to 30 June 2026 - SA PGM 4E -1.8%, SA gold -2.2%, US PGM 2E -2.3%, Century zinc -11.8%. Revenue still rose 64% to a record R90.0bn and the group swung from a $211m loss to a $1,147m profit, because the 4E basket rose 67% and gold rose 35%. Unit costs rose everywhere too. Nothing here was earned at the rock face - so we value it as a claim on a price deck, not as an operator. THE CALL: BUY (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$14.93 vs ~$11.66 today. KEY METRICS: - PERIOD: the SIX MONTHS ended 30 June 2026 - a semi-annual foreign private issuer filing a 6-K, not a 10-Q. There is no quarterly Street EPS bar here - PRODUCTION FELL AT ALL FOUR OPERATIONS: SA PGM 789,647oz 4E (-1.8%), SA gold 293,665oz (-2.2%), US PGM 137,930oz 2E (-2.3%), Century zinc 45kt (-11.8%) - PRICES ROSE AT ALL FOUR: 4E basket +67% to R43,996/4Eoz ($2,681), gold +35% ($4,597/oz), US 2E basket +70% to $1,672, zinc +12% - Revenue R89,977m (+64%, a record); adjusted EBITDA R31,843m (+111%); profit R18,807m ($1,147m) vs a R3,906m ($211m) loss - Attributable to owners $1,082m; NCI R1,062m. Basic EPS 627 SA cents/ordinary share = $1.53 per ADR (1 ADR = 4 ordinary shares) - Part of the swing is an absence: H1 2025 carried $526m of impairments, H1 2026 none. Headline earnings, which strip impairments from BOTH years, still roughly tripled to $1,036m - CASH QUALITY: operating cash R19,614m, but R9,361m (48%) is a working-capital swing in payables. Notional free cash flow is $881m v…