Episode
Sasol Stock (SSL): HOLD Call - Best Year In Five, Written Down Again FY2026
- Published
- Sep 2, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 891
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Summary
Sasol Limited (SSL) FY2026 — SSL closed at $12.45, +3.6% against the $12.02 prior close, on 1.99m shares - about 2.4x the prior session. The ADR has risen 79% in twelve months and is still 12.9% below the $14.29 it reached on 5 May. Secunda - the coal-to-liquids complex behind almost all of Sasol's profit - had its highest annual output in five years and beat guidance. Sasol wrote it down anyway: R7.7bn, the third consecutive impairment of the same refinery, R27.3bn in three years. The company's own explanation is that management actions did improve the recoverable amount, and 'these benefits were offset by the stronger forecast Rand/US$ exchange rate'. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$11.65 vs ~$12.45 today. KEY METRICS: - PERIOD: the year ended 30 June 2026. Form 20-F accession 0001104659-26-104048, filed 1 September 2026; KPMG unmodified opinion. Sasol reports in SOUTH AFRICAN RAND - TURNOVER R272.1bn (+9.2%) - ADJUSTED EBITDA R60.7bn (+17%) - OPERATING PROFIT BEFORE WRITE-DOWNS R43.0bn - EBIT R25.7bn (+37%) - gross margin 46% - HEADLINE EPS R38.31 (+9%) vs BASIC EPS R18.99 (+79%). Attributable earnings rose R5.4bn; R3.3bn of that is only a smaller impairment charge. 61% of the increase is the write-down shrinking - IMPAIRMENTS R16.8bn: Secunda refinery R7.7bn, Mozambique gas R3.8bn, polyethylene R3.7bn. Secunda impaired R7.8bn / R11.8bn / R7.7bn in three straight years = R27.3bn; R112.4bn group-wide - SASOL'S OWN WORDS: management actions improved the recoverable amount and 'these benefits were offset by the stronger forecast Rand/US$ exchange rate'. The test assumed R17.09; spot R16.18 - EVERYTHING ELSE IN THAT MODEL HELPED: Brent raised to $76.80/bbl from $72.16, refining margin to $9.81, SA discount rate CUT 14.50% to 11.50%. It impaired anyway…