Episode
PRGS Stock: 5x Earnings After A Beat-And-Raise - Q2 FY2026
- Published
- Jul 1, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 577
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Summary
PRGS (Progress Software) reported Q2 FY2026 earnings on 2026-06-30. Stock fell 44.8% on the print. Here's the breakdown: Is PRGS a buy, hold, or sell after this quarter? In this Progress Software (PRGS) Q2 FY2026 earnings breakdown we cover the revenue and EPS print, the 8-quarter trend, segment detail, the free-cash-flow bridge, forward guidance, peer valuation, and management & earnings quality - ending with a clear price-aware Buy / Hold / Avoid Call and a Wall Street consensus comparison. If you follow Technology stocks or PRGS earnings, this is the Q2 FY2026 deep dive. 🎧 Listen on Podbean: https://chargedalpha.podbean.com (also on Apple Podcasts & Spotify) 🔔 Subscribe for daily earnings deep-dives → @ChargedAlpha | Call tracker: chargedalpha.com THE CALL: BUY (4/5 conviction, STRONG) - CURRENT @ $33.58 - BUY - BUY below $28.00 with $24.00 stop - AVOID above $55.00 TRIGGER: A return to organic growth - annualized recurring revenue accelerating and net retention climbing back above 100% - OR a value-accretive acquisition like ShareFile. Either would force a re-rating off this five-times multiple. WINDOW: Through Q3 FY2026 earnings (late September 2026) TRACKER: charged-alpha.com/calls/PRGS WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 2 Strong Buy / 2 Buy / 1 Hold / 1 Sell / 0 Strong Sell - MODERATE BUY - Median 12-month price target: $45.50 (range $34 - $57) - Charged Alpha vs consensus: IN LINE THESIS Progress is a private-equity-style software compounder - it buys mature, sticky infrastructure software and harvests the cash - trading at roughly 5x forward earnings because the market does not believe it can grow organically. Bull lever: If AI-powered products durably lift organic growth even toward mid-single digits, a 5x multiple with a 19% free-cash-flow yield re-rat…