Episode
Newmont Stock: Record Gold, Record Cash, a Falling Stock — Why We’re a Cautious BUY (NEM Q2 2026)
- Published
- Jul 24, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 838
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Summary
Newmont Corporation (NEM) Q2 2026 — Newmont (NEM), the world's largest gold miner, reported a strong Q2 2026: a realized gold price of $4,414/oz drove record second-quarter free cash flow of $2.2B, adjusted EPS of $2.10 beat the ~$2.05 estimate (+47% YoY), net income was $2.2B ($2.06 GAAP), and the company returned $1.9B to shareholders ($1.7B buybacks + a $0.26 dividend). It ended the quarter with a $3.4B NET CASH position ($9.0B cash, $13B liquidity). Yet the stock sits near a 52-week low, down ~30% from its high — the market is front-running a gold pullback. The honest read: revenue actually fell 16% QoQ to $6.12B as the realized gold price came off a Q1 spike; headline AISC jumped 58% to $1,621/oz (mostly a by-product-credit optic as copper fell 43% on a Cadia seismic outage — YTD AISC is $1,321, below the $1,680 guide); reserves and production are SHRINKING (118 Moz vs 134 a year ago; 5.26 Moz guide vs 5.89 in 2025) after post-Newcrest divestitures, so growth now comes from price + a 9%/yr buyback, not ounces. Our gold-price scenario work lands fair value ~$105 on a $4,000 base case — above the ~$95 price but well below the Street's ~$142.70 avg target. Our call: BUY, 3/5. Newmont (NYSE: NEM) is the largest gold producer on earth — tier-one mines across the Americas, Australia, Africa and Papua New Guinea — and Q2 2026 was a cash machine at work. A realized gold price of $4,414 an ounce (up a third YoY) against all-in sustaining costs of $1,621 produced record second-quarter free cash flow of $2.2 billion, adjusted EPS of $2.10 (a beat, +47% YoY), $2.2 billion of net income, and $1.9 billion returned to shareholders — $1.7 billion of buybacks plus a 26-cent dividend, with $4.3 billion still authorized. Newmont ended the quarter with a $3.4 billion NET CASH positio…