Episode
MaxLinear Stock (MXL): Up 7x on the AI-Optical Boom, It Beat Earnings — So Why We Say HOLD
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- Jul 24, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 825
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Summary
MaxLinear, Inc. (MXL) Q2 2026 — MaxLinear (MXL), the fabless communications-chip maker that has reinvented itself as an AI data-center optical play, reported an explosive fiscal Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): revenue of $168.8M (+55% YoY, +23% QoQ) beat estimates, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.35 topped the ~$0.33 consensus (vs $0.02 a year ago). The engine was Infrastructure — the optical AI data-center business — up 145% YoY to $85.0M, now 50% of revenue (Keystone PAM4 DSP ramping for 800G, with a 1.6T generation on the roadmap). Management guided Q3 revenue to $210–220M (~+27% QoQ), well above the Street. But GAAP told a soberer story: a -2.5% operating margin (a small operating loss) and just $0.02 GAAP EPS, with $27.5M of stock-based comp (~16% of revenue) doing much of the work in the 'adjusted' numbers, and H1 free cash flow roughly breakeven-to-slightly-negative. After a ~7x run off a $12.77 low to ~$91, the stock actually FELL ~4% after the print. At ~11x forward sales and ~50x forward non-GAAP EPS, even our probability-weighted DCF lands fair value near $60 — and even the Street's ~$70 average target sits ~23% below the price. Our call: HOLD, 2/5. MaxLinear is one of the market's wildest turnaround stories — a sleepy, fabless broadband chipmaker out of Carlsbad, California that has reinvented itself almost overnight as an artificial-intelligence data-center play, and whose stock has gone up roughly seven-fold in a year (from a $12.77 low to ~$91). Fiscal Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026) was genuinely explosive: revenue of $168.8M jumped 55% YoY and 23% QoQ, beating estimates, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.35 topped the ~$0.33 consensus (against just $0.02 a year ago). The engine is Infrastructure — the optical AI data-center business — up 145% YoY to $85.0M an…