Episode
KMX Stock: CarMax Beat Earnings 39% - And The Stock Crashed 8%. Here’s Why Q1 FY2027
- Published
- Jun 17, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 583
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Summary
KMX (CarMax) reported Q1 FY2027 earnings on 2026-06-17. Stock fell 7.6% on the print. Here's the breakdown: Is KMX a buy, hold, or sell after this quarter? In this CarMax (KMX) Q1 FY2027 earnings breakdown we cover the revenue and EPS print, the 8-quarter trend, segment detail, the free-cash-flow bridge, forward guidance, peer valuation, and management & earnings quality - ending with a clear price-aware Buy / Hold / Avoid Call and a Wall Street consensus comparison. If you follow Consumer stocks or KMX earnings, this is the Q1 FY2027 deep dive. 🎧 Listen on Podbean: https://chargedalpha.podbean.com (also on Apple Podcasts & Spotify) 🔔 Subscribe for daily earnings deep-dives → @ChargedAlpha | Call tracker: chargedalpha.com THE CALL: HOLD (3/5 conviction, MODERATE) - CURRENT @ $48.16 - HOLD - BUY below $34.00 with $30.00 stop - AVOID above $52.00 TRIGGER: Two consecutive quarters of POSITIVE comparable used-unit growth AND retail GPU stabilizing WINDOW: Through Q2 FY27 earnings (late September 2026) and the fall strategic update TRACKER: chargedalpha.com WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 1 Strong Buy / 9 Buy / 21 Hold / 4 Sell / 0 Strong Sell - HOLD - Median 12-month price target: $37.00 (range $25 - $55) - Charged Alpha vs consensus: IN LINE THESIS A scaled used-car retailer + captive lender deliberately cutting per-unit margins to chase volume - and the volume isn't coming (comps -0.8%), while the EPS beat was engineered by costs and buybacks. Bull lever: If the price-cut strategy turns comparable units positive in the next two quarters and the $200M cost program lands, EPS re-accelerates and the multiple defends itself off a depressed base. Key risk: Margin compression guided all year with no comp payoff yet, rising CAF credit cost, and a stock already ~24% abo…