Episode
AVAV Stock: Record Quarter, Full-Year Loss - Q4 FY2026
- Published
- Jun 30, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 591
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- https://chargedalpha.podbean.com/e/avav-stock-record-quarter-full-year-loss-q4-fy2026/
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Summary
AVAV (AeroVironment) reported Q4 FY2026 earnings on 2026-06-29. Stock jumped 20.2% on the print. Here's the breakdown: Is AVAV a buy, hold, or sell after this quarter? In this AeroVironment (AVAV) Q4 FY2026 earnings breakdown we cover the revenue and EPS print, the 8-quarter trend, segment detail, the free-cash-flow bridge, forward guidance, peer valuation, and management & earnings quality - ending with a clear price-aware Buy / Hold / Avoid Call and a Wall Street consensus comparison. If you follow Industrials stocks or AVAV earnings, this is the Q4 FY2026 deep dive. 🎧 Listen on Podbean: https://chargedalpha.podbean.com (also on Apple Podcasts & Spotify) 🔔 Subscribe for daily earnings deep-dives → @ChargedAlpha | Call tracker: chargedalpha.com THE CALL: HOLD (3/5 conviction, MODERATE) - CURRENT @ $165.85 - HOLD - BUY below $130.00 with $110.00 stop - AVOID above $230.00 TRIGGER: Two consecutive quarters of positive GAAP EPS and book-to-bill staying above 1.2, OR organic (ex-acquisition) revenue growth above 15%. WINDOW: Through Q2 FY2027 earnings (roughly December 2026) TRACKER: charged-alpha.com/calls/AVAV WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 0 Strong Buy / 16 Buy / 12 Hold / 0 Sell / 0 Strong Sell - BUY - Median 12-month price target: $240.00 (range $205 - $330) - Charged Alpha vs consensus: IN LINE, MORE CAUTIOUS THESIS AeroVironment is the U.S. leader in tactical loitering munitions and small drones, now diversified into space, counter-UAS and directed energy via BlueHalo, riding a structural drone-warfare upcycle. Bull lever: If the $1.2B backlog and $2.7B of bookings convert to GAAP profit and the SCDE segment scales its margin, the company grows into a still-rich multiple and the stock re-rates off a beaten-down base. Key risk: SCAR proved a single program…