Episode
Ep. 183: Hormuz—the new nuclear
- Podcast
- Australia in the World
- Published
- Apr 21, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 3931
- Processing state
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Summary
Eight weeks into the US-Israeli war against Iran, the ceasefire is about to expire and the second round of negotiations is supposed to be happening this week in Islamabad. Darren uses the framework of “war-as-bargaining” to make sense of an extraordinary three weeks—the threats, the ceasefire, the collapse of the first talks, the blockade, Iran's brief reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and its near-immediate closure—and argues that the conflict has transformed Iran's strategic calculus in ways that make control of the Strait a functional substitute for nuclear weapons. The episode then works through what kind of deal is actually possible, why the Trump administration’s rejection of process makes that deal hard to deliver, and why the West more broadly is going to have to develop the psychological capacity to live with outcomes in which adversaries get to enjoy strategic successes. Darren finishes with a moral accounting of Trump's threats to annihilate Iranian civilisation, and a post-script on what he still believes despite it all. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence (Yale University Press, 1966): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/113730.Arms_and_Influence Robert Pape, Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War (Cornell University Press, 1996): https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/761594.Bombing_to_Win Mark Mazzetti, Adam Entous and Julian E. Barnes, “For Iran, Flexing Control Over Waterway Is New Deterrent,” New York Times, 18 April 2026: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/18/us/politics/iran-hormuz-strait-trump.html Josh Dawsey and Annie Linskey, “Behind Trump’s Public Bravado on the War, He…