{"podcast":{"title":"VREF | The Truth About the Aviation Market","slug":"vref-the-truth-about-the-aviation-market-7473682","podcast_index_feed_id":7473682,"rss_url":"https://api.riverside.fm/hosting/KlKGheoM.rss","website_url":"https://rss.com/podcasts/vref-the-truth-about-the-aviation-market","image_url":"https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/imports/podcasts/baca7f0c-f5ac-43bc-8887-ff5ddd6cfc5e/20250903_070939_479186d40de6208b7f94a6be525ff918.png","author":"Jason Zilberbrand","episode_count":49,"summary":"Up-to-date information on the state of the aviation marketplace and it's effect on aircraft valuation by the leader in aircraft valuation: VREF Aircraft Value Reference, Appraisal & Litigation Services","last_synced_at":"2026-08-01T22:17:21.315982+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/vref-the-truth-about-the-aviation-market-7473682"},"episode":{"title":"The Confidence Recession Is Here:\nWhy Aircraft Deals Are Freezing Before Prices Break | EP 45","slug":"the-confidence-recession-is-here-why-aircraft-deals-are-freezing-before-prices-break-ep-45","published_at":"2026-07-05T01:04:45+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/vref-the-truth-about-the-aviation-market-7473682/the-confidence-recession-is-here-why-aircraft-deals-are-freezing-before-prices-break-ep-45","show_page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/vref-the-truth-about-the-aviation-market-7473682","url":"https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/e228c5c8e6da1d95b76218273b8a2999f1559f94b7d944c54f851f2eeacac0f3/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiIyNWRhNTFhNy01ZDA2LTQxYzAtYWZhMS1mOTIyNjM3NDYxNDciLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiJiYWNhN2YwYy1mNWFjLTQzYmMtODg4Ny1mZjVkZGQ2Y2ZjNWUiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2OWNjMWVmYWJiNDBlZDcwMmI1MGI1MmEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmE0OWFjYmFjMzIwMTQ4MDhmN2U2NDhiL2phc29uLXppbGJlcmJyYW5kcy1zdHVkaW8tY29tcG9zZXItMjAyNi03LTVfXzMtMC00Mi5tcDMifQ==.mp3","audio_url":"https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/e228c5c8e6da1d95b76218273b8a2999f1559f94b7d944c54f851f2eeacac0f3/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiIyNWRhNTFhNy01ZDA2LTQxYzAtYWZhMS1mOTIyNjM3NDYxNDciLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiJiYWNhN2YwYy1mNWFjLTQzYmMtODg4Ny1mZjVkZGQ2Y2ZjNWUiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2OWNjMWVmYWJiNDBlZDcwMmI1MGI1MmEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmE0OWFjYmFjMzIwMTQ4MDhmN2U2NDhiL2phc29uLXppbGJlcmJyYW5kcy1zdHVkaW8tY29tcG9zZXItMjAyNi03LTVfXzMtMC00Mi5tcDMifQ==.mp3","summary":"In this episode, we cover: • Why Bitcoin’s selloff is a useful comparison for what is happening in aviation • Why “meltdown” always depends on the time frame you are using • How market damage often happens long before the public starts panicking • Why aviation is showing the same behavioral pattern as other asset cycles • Why participation dries up before prices visibly break • How sentiment cracks before sellers admit the market has changed • Why leverage gets flushed out late in the cycle, not early • Why headlines usually show up at the loudest and least useful stage • Why the real question is not whether the sky is falling today • Why the better question is what behavior was telling you three months ago • Why Jason sees the current aircraft market as a confidence recession, not a simple crash • Why volume tells the story first • Why price is a lagging indicator • How sticky asking prices can hide a frozen market underneath • Why sellers stay anchored to yesterday’s comps • Why transactions, inquiries, days on market, and failed deals matter more than asking prices • How soft volume and sticky pricing create stalemate • Why a stalemate eventually has to break • The four things that can break a frozen market: lower prices, seller capitulation, looser financing, or returning confidence • Why aircraft market participants often read the data in the wrong order • Why volume goes first, then time on market stretches, then retrades appear, and only later do asking prices move • Why closed sale prices are often the most lagging data point in the chain • Why some experienced brokers going from 10 to 15 annual closings to zero is a major warning sign • Why individual broker pipelines may reveal market truth before industry statistics catch up • Why averages can lie during tra…","meta_description":"In this episode, we cover: • Why Bitcoin’s selloff is a useful comparison for what is happening in aviation • Why “meltdown” always depends on the time fr…","key_points":[],"chapters":[],"topics":[],"duration_seconds":1279,"processing_state":"not_requested","actions":[{"name":"request_transcript","method":"POST","url":"https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/vref-the-truth-about-the-aviation-market-7473682/episodes/the-confidence-recession-is-here-why-aircraft-deals-are-freezing-before-prices-break-ep-45/transcription-requests","description":"Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode."},{"name":"read_markdown","method":"GET","url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/vref-the-truth-about-the-aviation-market-7473682/the-confidence-recession-is-here-why-aircraft-deals-are-freezing-before-prices-break-ep-45.md","description":"Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource."}]}}