{"podcast":{"title":"Two Quants and a Financial Planner","slug":"two-quants-and-a-financial-planner-6020642","podcast_index_feed_id":6020642,"rss_url":"https://anchor.fm/s/d9f6e850/podcast/rss","website_url":"https://excessreturnspod.com","image_url":"https://d3t3ozftmdmh3i.cloudfront.net/staging/podcast_uploaded_nologo/36468372/36468372-1743436197707-44e8cf3ef5035.jpg","author":"Excess Returns","episode_count":145,"summary":"Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.","last_synced_at":"2026-07-20T22:20:02.766400+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/two-quants-and-a-financial-planner-6020642"},"episode":{"title":"The 1 in 18,900 Bet | Practical Lessons from Michael Maboussin, Katie Stockton, Ben Hunt, Kuppy and Aahan Menon","slug":"the-1-in-18-900-bet-practical-lessons-from-michael-maboussin-katie-stockton-ben-hunt-kuppy-and-aahan-menon","published_at":"2026-04-05T17:20:17+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/two-quants-and-a-financial-planner-6020642/the-1-in-18-900-bet-practical-lessons-from-michael-maboussin-katie-stockton-ben-hunt-kuppy-and-aahan-menon","show_page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/two-quants-and-a-financial-planner-6020642","url":"https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/education-financial-plan/episodes/The-1-in-18-900-Bet--Practical-Lessons-from-Michael-Maboussin--Katie-Stockton--Ben-Hunt--Kuppy-and-Aahan-Menon-e3hfduv","audio_url":"https://anchor.fm/s/d9f6e850/podcast/play/117994911/https%3A%2F%2Fd3ctxlq1ktw2nl.cloudfront.net%2Fstaging%2F2026-3-5%2F421457234-44100-2-b763e6878fc02.mp3","summary":"This episode of Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together the most important ideas from a packed week of interviews, covering AI and base rates, the Magnificent Seven, commodities, macro risks, and practical investing frameworks. Jack Forehand and Kai Wu break down key clips from Michael Mauboussin, Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman, Ben Hunt, Katie Stockton, and Aahan Menon to extract timeless lessons investors can apply across different market environments. The conversation moves from AI expectations and economic profit to geopolitical “common knowledge” moments, commodity dynamics, trend following, and the importance of thinking in probabilities and time horizons. Topics Covered: Why OpenAI’s growth expectations are historically unprecedented and what base rates actually tell us How base rates should guide expectations without limiting outlier outcomes like Amazon Why large companies are growing faster today and the role of intangible assets and software The concentration of economic profit in the Magnificent Seven and what it implies for valuations Why long-term time horizons create a structural edge in investing The concept of “common knowledge” and how it reshapes markets during geopolitical events Where AI value will accrue: companies vs consumers vs suppliers Why commodities behave differently from stocks and bonds during supply shocks How trend following works and why commodities are uniquely suited to it Why investing is a probabilities game and how to manage uncertainty and position sizing How technical indicators like the 200-day moving average should actually be used Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and overview of Weekly Wrap format 00:02:05 Michael Mauboussin on OpenAI growth and base rates 00:06:18 Why base rates matter but don’t define outcomes 00:09:50 Why large compa…","meta_description":"This episode of Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together the most important ideas from a packed week of interviews, covering AI and base rates, the Magn…","key_points":[],"chapters":[],"topics":[],"duration_seconds":3996,"processing_state":"not_requested","actions":[{"name":"request_transcript","method":"POST","url":"https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/two-quants-and-a-financial-planner-6020642/episodes/the-1-in-18-900-bet-practical-lessons-from-michael-maboussin-katie-stockton-ben-hunt-kuppy-and-aahan-menon/transcription-requests","description":"Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode."},{"name":"read_markdown","method":"GET","url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/two-quants-and-a-financial-planner-6020642/the-1-in-18-900-bet-practical-lessons-from-michael-maboussin-katie-stockton-ben-hunt-kuppy-and-aahan-menon.md","description":"Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource."}]}}