{"podcast":{"title":"Thoughts on the Market","slug":"thoughts-on-the-market-980853","podcast_index_feed_id":980853,"rss_url":"https://rss.art19.com/thoughts-on-the-market","website_url":"https://art19.com/shows/thoughts-on-the-market","image_url":"https://content.production.cdn.art19.com/images/68/53/52/d0/685352d0-9248-46b0-99bc-96589e58c7da/17e395c4e66b1b71c451c38d72389ffaebc7784e20e8c3bea964dc0287434ef3475e93f6527b48a642d0d7a6a23943dcdef6c0b861481aed9ef54002b9f78b4d.jpeg","author":"Morgan Stanley","episode_count":1675,"summary":"Short, thoughtful and regular takes on recent events in the markets from a variety of perspectives and voices within Morgan Stanley.","last_synced_at":"2026-07-25T20:17:54.934994+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/thoughts-on-the-market-980853"},"episode":{"title":"What a Quieter Fed Could Mean for Markets","slug":"what-a-quieter-fed-could-mean-for-markets","published_at":"2026-06-24T20:00:00+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/thoughts-on-the-market-980853/what-a-quieter-fed-could-mean-for-markets","show_page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/thoughts-on-the-market-980853","url":"https://pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/rss.art19.com/episodes/9e5754f2-fbd2-45c7-a090-867e949b18d6.mp3?rss_browser=BAhJIg90cmFuc2NyaWJyBjoGRVQ%3D--952c5701c84ad333c69d5faa668f8177091704f0","audio_url":"https://pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/rss.art19.com/episodes/9e5754f2-fbd2-45c7-a090-867e949b18d6.mp3?rss_browser=BAhJIg90cmFuc2NyaWJyBjoGRVQ%3D--952c5701c84ad333c69d5faa668f8177091704f0","summary":"In his first meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh signaled restraint in providing guidance. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets looks at possible impacts of the new approach. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.  Today, why the Fed could do less than expected and why that could still lead to more volatility.  It's Wednesday, June 24th at 2pm in London.  Last week saw the first meeting of the Federal Reserve under its new chair, Kevin Warsh. It didn't disappoint.  The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections saw significantly higher inflation than the last iteration in March, and in turn, a much stronger case to raise interest rates, perhaps multiple times. The Fed's statement, which laid out its views around the economy and its reasons for action, was changed dramatically – and also significantly shortened.  We don't think the Fed will ultimately follow through on the interest rate rises that were flagged in this meeting and will choose instead to remain on hold this year. But we think this scenario of them staying on hold can still lead to more volatility.  I'll try to address each side of this apparent contradiction.  First, the Fed is clearly worried about inflation, which has been elevated for a considerable period of time. But working through the numbers, Morgan Stanley economists forecast lower inflation over the rest of this year than the Fed now expects. And so, while we think it would be entirely reasonable for the Fed to expect to raise interest rates based on the high inflation that they have penciled in, we think they could reach a different conclusion if our lo…","meta_description":"In his first meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh signaled restraint in providing guidance. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets looks at p…","key_points":[],"chapters":[],"topics":[],"duration_seconds":232,"processing_state":"not_requested","actions":[{"name":"request_transcript","method":"POST","url":"https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market-980853/episodes/what-a-quieter-fed-could-mean-for-markets/transcription-requests","description":"Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode."},{"name":"read_markdown","method":"GET","url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/thoughts-on-the-market-980853/what-a-quieter-fed-could-mean-for-markets.md","description":"Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource."}]}}