{"podcast":{"title":"Thoughts on the Market","slug":"thoughts-on-the-market-980853","podcast_index_feed_id":980853,"rss_url":"https://rss.art19.com/thoughts-on-the-market","website_url":"https://art19.com/shows/thoughts-on-the-market","image_url":"https://content.production.cdn.art19.com/images/68/53/52/d0/685352d0-9248-46b0-99bc-96589e58c7da/17e395c4e66b1b71c451c38d72389ffaebc7784e20e8c3bea964dc0287434ef3475e93f6527b48a642d0d7a6a23943dcdef6c0b861481aed9ef54002b9f78b4d.jpeg","author":"Morgan Stanley","episode_count":1675,"summary":"Short, thoughtful and regular takes on recent events in the markets from a variety of perspectives and voices within Morgan Stanley.","last_synced_at":"2026-07-25T20:17:54.934994+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/thoughts-on-the-market-980853"},"episode":{"title":"Warsh’s Opening Act at the Fed","slug":"warsh-s-opening-act-at-the-fed","published_at":"2026-06-16T20:30:00+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/thoughts-on-the-market-980853/warsh-s-opening-act-at-the-fed","show_page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/thoughts-on-the-market-980853","url":"https://pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/rss.art19.com/episodes/e29f10f1-3194-4963-9791-cf09591ddde5.mp3?rss_browser=BAhJIg90cmFuc2NyaWJyBjoGRVQ%3D--952c5701c84ad333c69d5faa668f8177091704f0","audio_url":"https://pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/rss.art19.com/episodes/e29f10f1-3194-4963-9791-cf09591ddde5.mp3?rss_browser=BAhJIg90cmFuc2NyaWJyBjoGRVQ%3D--952c5701c84ad333c69d5faa668f8177091704f0","summary":"Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen discuss the signals investors will be seeking from the new Fed Chair leading his first monetary policy meeting and possible implications for markets. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript ----- Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.  Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.  Matthew Hornbach: Today, markets are watching the Fed's next move. Are rate cuts delayed or could hikes possibly be back on the table?  It's Tuesday, June 16th at 8:30am in New York.  So, Mike, the FOMC meeting today and tomorrow is likely more about reading the signal rather than announcing a rate change. Markets will focus on inflation forecasts, the unemployment rate, and the growth outlook. But, of course, this will also be the first meeting after Powell ended his term as Fed chair in May. All eyes will be on Warsh.  So, what are your thoughts before the press conference?  Michael Gapen: A lot of thoughts, actually, before the press conference. I do think it's basically a foregone conclusion that the Fed will be changing its easing bias in favor of more neutral language. Seems clear the committee wants to do that, probably wanted to do that at the last meeting. And it does fit, I think, Warsh's preference for less communication, less guidance from the Fed. So, I do think that's largely a foregone conclusion, although obviously we need to see whether that happens and whether there are dissents.  I think, as you noted, the forecasts will be important, but I think what's really important from my perspective – more than the modal outlook or the baselin…","meta_description":"Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen discuss the signals investors will be seeking from the new F…","key_points":[],"chapters":[],"topics":[],"duration_seconds":749,"processing_state":"not_requested","actions":[{"name":"request_transcript","method":"POST","url":"https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market-980853/episodes/warsh-s-opening-act-at-the-fed/transcription-requests","description":"Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode."},{"name":"read_markdown","method":"GET","url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/thoughts-on-the-market-980853/warsh-s-opening-act-at-the-fed.md","description":"Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource."}]}}