{"podcast":{"title":"The National Land Podcast","slug":"the-national-land-podcast-5511204","podcast_index_feed_id":5511204,"rss_url":"https://nationalland.podbean.com/feed.xml","website_url":"https://nationalland.podbean.com","image_url":"https://pbcdn1.podbean.com/imglogo/image-logo/14029893/TNLPodcast_Graphic-FINAL_wfqdix.jpg","author":"National Land Realty","episode_count":100,"summary":"The National Land Podcast is a long form conversation created to inspire, educate, and entertain land enthusiasts, ranch and farm specialists, hunters, land owners, and those looking to buy or sell land.","last_synced_at":"2026-07-12T22:17:42.086195+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-national-land-podcast-5511204"},"episode":{"title":"Tariffs, China, and Brazil’s Soy Surge: The Math No One Likes","slug":"tariffs-china-and-brazil-s-soy-surge-the-math-no-one-likes","published_at":"2025-10-18T20:54:57+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-national-land-podcast-5511204/tariffs-china-and-brazil-s-soy-surge-the-math-no-one-likes","show_page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-national-land-podcast-5511204","url":"https://nationalland.podbean.com/e/tariffs-china-and-brazil-s-soy-surge-the-math-no-one-likes/","audio_url":"https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/b7zzb9vqyek8zdt6/Schnitkey-Tariffs.mp3","summary":"The Midwest row‑crop math is ugly: cash prices are ~$4 corn and ~$10 soybeans against break‑evens near $4.50 (corn) and $11.50 (soybeans). University of Illinois agricultural economist Dr. Gary Schnitkey breaks down what’s driving it and what landowners, operators, and lenders should expect. What we cover Tariffs & trade: No Chinese soybean bookings so far this season; China is favoring Brazil—and financing its export infrastructure. Result: lower U.S. prices now and a tougher long‑run soybean outlook. Cost structure: Seed/fertilizer stayed high; machinery costs jumped ~25% (2021–2023). Million‑dollar combines and pricier parts make scale (or equipment sharing) more critical. Break‑even reality: ~$4.50 corn / ~$11.50 soybeans vs. ~$4/$10 cash—why margins are negative without aid. Government payments: 2024 ad‑hoc aid (~$10B nationally; ~$37/acre in IL) kept incomes from going red; 2025 budgets assume ~$65/acre commodity title payments plus another ECAP‑style package. Policy support is holding up cash rents and land values. Farmland values & rents: Off the peak and largely flat. If payments fade, expect downward pressure; a gradual ~20% decline over time isn’t off the table if current conditions persist. Crop switching & regen: Few viable pivots in the Corn/Soy Belt. Lower prices slow regenerative adoption (transition takes time and can ding yield early). Great Plains likely adjust first. Livestock: Bright spot—cattle margins remain strong. Outlook: Barring a major shock (e.g., Brazil/US drought), expect $4 corn / $10 soybeans to stick. In the meantime, the sector is effectively “going to Washington.” Guest: Dr. Gary Schnitkey, Professor of Agricultural & Consumer Economics, University of Illinois; works with FBFM (Farm Business Farm Management) and Preci…","meta_description":"The Midwest row‑crop math is ugly: cash prices are ~$4 corn and ~$10 soybeans against break‑evens near $4.50 (corn) and $11.50 (soybeans). University of I…","key_points":[],"chapters":[],"topics":[],"duration_seconds":3290,"processing_state":"not_requested","actions":[{"name":"request_transcript","method":"POST","url":"https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/the-national-land-podcast-5511204/episodes/tariffs-china-and-brazil-s-soy-surge-the-math-no-one-likes/transcription-requests","description":"Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode."},{"name":"read_markdown","method":"GET","url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-national-land-podcast-5511204/tariffs-china-and-brazil-s-soy-surge-the-math-no-one-likes.md","description":"Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource."}]}}