{"podcast":{"title":"The Julia La Roche Show","slug":"the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803","podcast_index_feed_id":5842803,"rss_url":"https://anchor.fm/s/41aa63c4/podcast/rss","website_url":"https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/julia-la-roche","image_url":"https://d3t3ozftmdmh3i.cloudfront.net/production/podcast_uploaded_nologo/10916857/10916857-1660085096509-ec2c80bf0ad2a.jpg","author":"Julia La Roche","episode_count":395,"summary":"Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on \"The Julia La Roche Show\" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.","last_synced_at":"2026-07-24T00:18:02.386758+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803"},"episode":{"title":"#390 Ted Oakley: \"It's Not a Normal Market\" — A Generational Bear Could Cut Stocks 40%","slug":"390-ted-oakley-it-s-not-a-normal-market-a-generational-bear-could-cut-stocks-40","published_at":"2026-07-16T12:00:00+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803/390-ted-oakley-it-s-not-a-normal-market-a-generational-bear-could-cut-stocks-40","show_page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803","url":"https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/julia-la-roche/episodes/390-Ted-Oakley-Its-Not-a-Normal-Market--A-Generational-Bear-Could-Cut-Stocks-40-e3m502s","audio_url":"https://traffic.megaphone.fm/APO1504437850.mp3","summary":"In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, returns to discuss his latest letter, "Stick to Your Principles," and why he believes today's market is anything but normal. He warns that 10-12 companies now make up half the S&P 500, speculation via leveraged ETFs is in the billions, and stocks are roughly three standard deviations above the norm — a setup he says could eventually correct 40% or more in a generational bear market. Oakley explains why investor complacency is the biggest mistake he sees, with three-quarters of all financial assets in stocks and Americans over 70 owning a third of the market. He shares where he's finding value now — energy names like Northern Oil & Gas, Kimbell Royalty, and Antero, plus beaten-down gold miners like Agnico Eagle — and recounts the hard lesson he learned chasing hot oil stocks in the late 1970s. His biggest worry: unsustainable government debt. His surprising source of optimism: a severe downturn, which he views as the buying opportunity of a generation. Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168 Timestamps: 0:00 – Introduction: Ted Oakley of Oxbow Advisors returns 0:53 – Semiconductors dominating the market; 10-12 companies are half the S&P 2:10 – "The Gambler": leveraged ETFs and speculation in the billions 3:16 – How leveraged ETFs amplify volatility 4:25 – A market high that "sticks for a while" coming in the next 6-12 months 5:41 – Risk/reward has flipped: 6-8% upsi…","meta_description":"In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, returns to discuss his latest letter, \"Sti…","key_points":[],"chapters":[],"topics":[],"duration_seconds":2208,"processing_state":"not_requested","actions":[{"name":"request_transcript","method":"POST","url":"https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803/episodes/390-ted-oakley-it-s-not-a-normal-market-a-generational-bear-could-cut-stocks-40/transcription-requests","description":"Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode."},{"name":"read_markdown","method":"GET","url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803/390-ted-oakley-it-s-not-a-normal-market-a-generational-bear-could-cut-stocks-40.md","description":"Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource."}]}}