{"podcast":{"title":"The Julia La Roche Show","slug":"the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803","podcast_index_feed_id":5842803,"rss_url":"https://anchor.fm/s/41aa63c4/podcast/rss","website_url":"https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/julia-la-roche","image_url":"https://d3t3ozftmdmh3i.cloudfront.net/production/podcast_uploaded_nologo/10916857/10916857-1660085096509-ec2c80bf0ad2a.jpg","author":"Julia La Roche","episode_count":395,"summary":"Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on \"The Julia La Roche Show\" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.","last_synced_at":"2026-07-24T00:18:02.386758+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803"},"episode":{"title":"#360 Michael Howell: We've Hit An Inflection Point — We're In The Speculation Phase And Turbulence Is Coming For Markets","slug":"360-michael-howell-we-ve-hit-an-inflection-point-we-re-in-the-speculation-phase-and-turbulence-is-coming-for-markets","published_at":"2026-04-17T10:00:00+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803/360-michael-howell-we-ve-hit-an-inflection-point-we-re-in-the-speculation-phase-and-turbulence-is-coming-for-markets","show_page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803","url":"https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/julia-la-roche/episodes/360-Michael-Howell-Weve-Hit-An-Inflection-Point--Were-In-The-Speculation-Phase-And-Turbulence-Is-Coming-For-Markets-e3i17kg","audio_url":"https://traffic.megaphone.fm/APO8827393972.mp3","summary":"Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to The Julia La Roche Show, returns seven months after his last appearance to update his Global Liquidity call. The peak he flagged for Q3 2025 has held, and the cycle now points to a trough in 2027. Despite the Iran conflict and market volatility, Michael argues the world economy is actually holding up better than the media suggests — but that's almost the problem, because money flowing into the real economy is draining it from financial markets. He explains why the current rally is phoney, why bond term premia falling is actually a flight to safety signal not a selloff, and why we're in the Speculation phase — where economies feel strongest right before things get difficult. He walks through his full asset allocation traffic light system, the debt liquidity nexus, why the Fed and Treasury may be secretly targeting the MOVE index to protect the basis trade and collateral system, the COVID-era debt maturity wall now coming due, and why raising interest rates in today's world may actually be stimulative — not contractionary — because the government is the biggest borrower and higher rates just transfer more income to the private sector. He closes on Treasury QE replacing Fed QE and what it means for Bitcoin. Links: Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercap Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902 00:00 — Introduction and welcome back Michael 01:15 — Where we are in the liquidity cycle — asset allocation clock and the five to six year cycle 05:15 — Julia asks about the phoney rally — Michael digs in 05:35 — The AI-based World GDP model — Iran f…","meta_description":"Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to The Julia La Roche Show, returns seven mon…","key_points":[],"chapters":[],"topics":[],"duration_seconds":3771,"processing_state":"not_requested","actions":[{"name":"request_transcript","method":"POST","url":"https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803/episodes/360-michael-howell-we-ve-hit-an-inflection-point-we-re-in-the-speculation-phase-and-turbulence-is-coming-for-markets/transcription-requests","description":"Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode."},{"name":"read_markdown","method":"GET","url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803/360-michael-howell-we-ve-hit-an-inflection-point-we-re-in-the-speculation-phase-and-turbulence-is-coming-for-markets.md","description":"Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource."}]}}