{"podcast":{"title":"The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more","slug":"the-flying-frisby-money-markets-and-more-161147","podcast_index_feed_id":161147,"rss_url":"https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/741404.rss","website_url":"https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/podcast","image_url":"https://substackcdn.com/feed/podcast/741404/3b0c4a7fd00a901c53a5b3c2e1528ed2.jpg","author":"Dominic Frisby","episode_count":622,"summary":"Thoughts on markets and occasional interviews","last_synced_at":"2026-07-12T08:19:40.461289+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-flying-frisby-money-markets-and-more-161147"},"episode":{"title":"The Problem with Mining Bull Markets","slug":"the-problem-with-mining-bull-markets","published_at":"2026-05-06T11:16:00+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-flying-frisby-money-markets-and-more-161147/the-problem-with-mining-bull-markets","show_page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-flying-frisby-money-markets-and-more-161147","url":"https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/p/the-problem-with-mining-bull-markets","audio_url":"https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/195975611/4bb858717aa8f660c1be7173beea3ddf.mp3","summary":"Something of a thought experiment today, motivated by the fact that I don’t want to go through another bear market in mining. I’m done with them. The false dawns, the endless grinding declines, the frustration. You might remember me saying, mid bear market a few years ago, “One more bull market and I’m done.” So the question I’m asking today is, “when can we expect this bull market to end?” It might already be over, for all I know. Or there might be another five years in the tank. I’m asking this question because I’m finding myself more and more tempted by high-risk mining exploration plays. I’m seeing value in companies that today have a market cap of C$50 million that a year ago I would have been more reluctant to invest in when their market caps were under C$10 million. Last week I bought one. I like it. But the way I bought it ignored all the risk-aversion built up over ten years of bear market. If we are in a secular bull trend for metals, then companies like this will do very well. But come a bear market, they will grind lower and lower, eventually reaching a point where they trade for little more than their cash value. My broad thesis for gold and silver, as you know, is that we trade sideways for a year, while the market works through the excesses of 2025. A mid-cycle pause, so to speak, before we eventually go to the $7 to $10,000 by the end of the decade. At present I feel more bullish about base metals such as copper and zinc. Rising prices here will preserve the bull market in mining more generally. But this is just one writers’ thesis. The mining cycle So today we are going to study two long-term charts. I have got a fantastic chart of the copper price, adjusted for inflation, going all the way back to 1900. Copper is a good proxy for industrial metals and…","meta_description":"Something of a thought experiment today, motivated by the fact that I don’t want to go through another bear market in mining. I’m done with them. The fals…","key_points":[],"chapters":[],"topics":[],"duration_seconds":504,"processing_state":"not_requested","actions":[{"name":"request_transcript","method":"POST","url":"https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/the-flying-frisby-money-markets-and-more-161147/episodes/the-problem-with-mining-bull-markets/transcription-requests","description":"Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode."},{"name":"read_markdown","method":"GET","url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-flying-frisby-money-markets-and-more-161147/the-problem-with-mining-bull-markets.md","description":"Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource."}]}}