{"podcast":{"title":"Odds on Open","slug":"odds-on-open-7262993","podcast_index_feed_id":7262993,"rss_url":"https://anchor.fm/s/101506278/podcast/rss","website_url":"https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/odds-on-open","image_url":"https://d3t3ozftmdmh3i.cloudfront.net/staging/podcast_uploaded_nologo/43070126/43070126-1753073465781-13389f75f3c86.jpg","author":"Ethan Kho","episode_count":62,"summary":"Conversations with leading thinkers on trading and investing. Hosted by Ethan Kho. Produced by Patrick Kho.","last_synced_at":"2026-06-26T04:18:56.319752+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/odds-on-open-7262993"},"episode":{"title":"LTCM Co-founder Victor Hagani: “Taking Risk Is Always a Negative.”","slug":"ltcm-co-founder-victor-hagani-taking-risk-is-always-a-negative","published_at":"2026-06-20T14:57:45+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/odds-on-open-7262993/ltcm-co-founder-victor-hagani-taking-risk-is-always-a-negative","show_page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/odds-on-open-7262993","url":"https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/odds-on-open/episodes/LTCM-Co-founder-Victor-Hagani-Taking-Risk-Is-Always-a-Negative-e3l21nu","audio_url":"https://anchor.fm/s/101506278/podcast/play/121750718/https%3A%2F%2Fd3ctxlq1ktw2nl.cloudfront.net%2Fstaging%2F2026-5-20%2F426507766-44100-2-68feffb80aaa2.mp3","summary":"Apply to Onyx’s Junior Tech Graduate Scheme here: https://verichain.io/apply/0aa1debe-ac6c-452f-9421-da6cbf4a3e8cIn this episode of Odds on Open, we sit down with Victor Haghani, co-founder of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) and founder of Elm Wealth, to dissect why institutional alpha frequently breaks down during the position sizing phase. While standard market commentary focuses heavily on asset selection, Haghani establishes that optimizing your risk-adjusted return is an independent, non-zero-sum discipline that dictates long-term survival. We explore the structural friction between expected value and compound return, the misapplication of the Kelly criterion by sophisticated Wall Street portfolio managers, and how treating variance as an internal financial fee reshapes quantitative portfolio construction and risk management.The discussion shifts to edge verification through Haghani’s famous "Crystal Ball" experiment, analyzing how elite macro traders and advanced LLMs process information asymmetry against historical market regimes. Designed for hedge fund analysts, quants, allocators, and advanced finance students, this section provides a rigorous framework for isolating compensated systematic risk from uncompensated idiosyncratic risk. We close with an actionable breakdown of how practitioners should mathematically model and discount their own human capital, offering a definitive blueprint for maximizing lifetime smooth capital accumulation without succumbing to high-volatility ruin.00:00 Intro01:27 LTCM: Why sizing matters more than selection03:00 Expected value vs. risk-adjusted value in portfolios05:15 Why sophisticated investors struggle with sizing bets08:20 The zero-sum reality of beating the market09:30 A message from Onyx10:35 Why most firm…","meta_description":"Apply to Onyx’s Junior Tech Graduate Scheme here: https://verichain.io/apply/0aa1debe-ac6c-452f-9421-da6cbf4a3e8cIn this episode of Odds on Open, we sit d…","key_points":[],"chapters":[],"topics":[],"duration_seconds":4315,"processing_state":"not_requested","actions":[{"name":"request_transcript","method":"POST","url":"https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/odds-on-open-7262993/episodes/ltcm-co-founder-victor-hagani-taking-risk-is-always-a-negative/transcription-requests","description":"Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode."},{"name":"read_markdown","method":"GET","url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/odds-on-open-7262993/ltcm-co-founder-victor-hagani-taking-risk-is-always-a-negative.md","description":"Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource."}]}}