{"podcast":{"title":"LessWrong (Curated & Popular)","slug":"lesswrong-curated-popular-5643401","podcast_index_feed_id":5643401,"rss_url":"https://rss.buzzsprout.com/2037297.rss","website_url":"https://sites.libsyn.com/421877","image_url":"https://storage.buzzsprout.com/xq8g0aka74ttwoa9xkxlmy5fn9oa?.jpg","author":"LessWrong","episode_count":859,"summary":"Audio narrations of LessWrong posts. Includes all curated posts and all posts with 125+ karma. If you'd like more, subscribe to the “Lesswrong (30+ karma)” feed.","last_synced_at":null,"page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/lesswrong-curated-popular-5643401"},"episode":{"title":"\"Forecasting is Way Overrated, and We Should Stop Funding It\" by mabramov","slug":"forecasting-is-way-overrated-and-we-should-stop-funding-it-by-mabramov","published_at":"2026-04-26T05:30:26+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/lesswrong-curated-popular-5643401/forecasting-is-way-overrated-and-we-should-stop-funding-it-by-mabramov","show_page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/lesswrong-curated-popular-5643401","url":"https://www.buzzsprout.com/2037297/episodes/19076678-forecasting-is-way-overrated-and-we-should-stop-funding-it-by-mabramov.mp3","audio_url":"https://www.buzzsprout.com/2037297/episodes/19076678-forecasting-is-way-overrated-and-we-should-stop-funding-it-by-mabramov.mp3","summary":"Summary EA and rationalists got enamoured with forecasting and prediction markets and made them part of the culture, but this hasn’t proven very useful, yet it continues to receive substantial EA funding. We should cut it off. My Experience with Forecasting For a while, I was the number one forecaster on Manifold. This lasted for about a year until I stopped just over 2 years ago. To this day, despite quitting, I’m still #8 on the platform. Additionally, I have done well on real-money...","meta_description":"Summary EA and rationalists got enamoured with forecasting and prediction markets and made them part of the culture, but this hasn’t proven very useful, y…","key_points":[],"chapters":[],"topics":[],"duration_seconds":522,"processing_state":"not_requested","actions":[{"name":"request_transcript","method":"POST","url":"https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/lesswrong-curated-popular-5643401/episodes/forecasting-is-way-overrated-and-we-should-stop-funding-it-by-mabramov/transcription-requests","description":"Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode."},{"name":"read_markdown","method":"GET","url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/lesswrong-curated-popular-5643401/forecasting-is-way-overrated-and-we-should-stop-funding-it-by-mabramov.md","description":"Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource."}]}}