{"podcast":{"title":"LessWrong (Curated & Popular)","slug":"lesswrong-curated-popular-5643401","podcast_index_feed_id":5643401,"rss_url":"https://rss.buzzsprout.com/2037297.rss","website_url":"https://sites.libsyn.com/421877","image_url":"https://storage.buzzsprout.com/xq8g0aka74ttwoa9xkxlmy5fn9oa?.jpg","author":"LessWrong","episode_count":914,"summary":"Audio narrations of LessWrong posts. Includes all curated posts and all posts with 125+ karma. If you'd like more, subscribe to the “Lesswrong (30+ karma)” feed.","last_synced_at":"2026-07-26T00:17:48.974965+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/lesswrong-curated-popular-5643401"},"episode":{"title":"\"Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models\" by Anders Cairns Woodruff, Francis Rhys Ward, Dewi Gould, Rauno Arike, Jason R Brown, Jo Jiao, wlanderson, ariana_azarbal, harrymayne, Patrick Leask","slug":"estimating-no-cot-task-completion-time-horizons-of-frontier-ai-models-by-anders-cairns-woodruff-francis-rhys-ward-dewi-gould-rauno-arike-jason-r-brown-jo-jiao-wlanderson-ariana-azarbal-harrymayne-patrick-leask","published_at":"2026-06-11T12:45:43+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/lesswrong-curated-popular-5643401/estimating-no-cot-task-completion-time-horizons-of-frontier-ai-models-by-anders-cairns-woodruff-francis-rhys-ward-dewi-gould-rauno-arike-jason-r-brown-jo-jiao-wlanderson-ariana-azarbal-harrymayne-patrick-leask","show_page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/lesswrong-curated-popular-5643401","url":"https://www.buzzsprout.com/2037297/episodes/19330600-estimating-no-cot-task-completion-time-horizons-of-frontier-ai-models-by-anders-cairns-woodruff-francis-rhys-ward-dewi-gould-rauno-arike-jason-r-brown-jo-jiao-wlanderson-ariana_azarbal-harrymayne-patrick-leask.mp3","audio_url":"https://www.buzzsprout.com/2037297/episodes/19330600-estimating-no-cot-task-completion-time-horizons-of-frontier-ai-models-by-anders-cairns-woodruff-francis-rhys-ward-dewi-gould-rauno-arike-jason-r-brown-jo-jiao-wlanderson-ariana_azarbal-harrymayne-patrick-leask.mp3","summary":"(see full author list at the end) PAPER LINK About a year ago, METR showed that the length of tasks frontier models can reliably complete doubles every few months. A related safety-relevant question is this: what length of tasks can models complete without any chain of thought (CoT)? If models can do extensive reasoning without outputting any CoT, it would have implications for safety. Developers and deployment-time monitors couldn’t easily understand models’ motivations and catch dang...","meta_description":"(see full author list at the end) PAPER LINK About a year ago, METR showed that the length of tasks frontier models can reliably complete doubles every fe…","key_points":[],"chapters":[],"topics":[],"duration_seconds":604,"processing_state":"not_requested","actions":[{"name":"request_transcript","method":"POST","url":"https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/lesswrong-curated-popular-5643401/episodes/estimating-no-cot-task-completion-time-horizons-of-frontier-ai-models-by-anders-cairns-woodruff-francis-rhys-ward-dewi-gould-rauno-arike-jason-r-brown-jo-jiao-wlanderson-ariana-azarbal-harrymayne-patrick-leask/transcription-requests","description":"Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode."},{"name":"read_markdown","method":"GET","url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/lesswrong-curated-popular-5643401/estimating-no-cot-task-completion-time-horizons-of-frontier-ai-models-by-anders-cairns-woodruff-francis-rhys-ward-dewi-gould-rauno-arike-jason-r-brown-jo-jiao-wlanderson-ariana-azarbal-harrymayne-patrick-leask.md","description":"Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource."}]}}