{"podcast":{"title":"Horns of a Dilemma","slug":"horns-of-a-dilemma-697116","podcast_index_feed_id":697116,"rss_url":"https://hornsofadilemma.libsyn.com/rss","website_url":"https://tnsr.org/","image_url":"https://static.libsyn.com/p/assets/6/3/9/c/639cb6edf8954b4be55e3c100dce7605/Horns_of_a_Dilemma_Updated_6.20.22.jpg","author":"Texas National Security Review","episode_count":307,"summary":"Brought to you by the Texas National Security Review, this podcast features lectures, interviews, and panel discussions at The University of Texas at Austin.","last_synced_at":"2026-07-22T06:20:01.571298+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/horns-of-a-dilemma-697116"},"episode":{"title":"Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials","slug":"assessing-and-combating-overconfidence-among-2-000-national-security-officials","published_at":"2025-09-23T19:44:00+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/horns-of-a-dilemma-697116/assessing-and-combating-overconfidence-among-2-000-national-security-officials","show_page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/horns-of-a-dilemma-697116","url":"https://hornsofadilemma.libsyn.com/assessing-and-combating-overconfidence-among-2000-national-security-officials","audio_url":"https://traffic.libsyn.com/clean/secure/hornsofadilemma/Assessing_and_Combating_Overconfidence_Among_2000_National_Security_Officials-.m4a?dest-id=662418","summary":"Dr. Jeffrey Friedman, an associate professor at Dartmouth College, reveals striking findings that seasoned national security professionals often misjudge uncertainty. This overview of his latest TNSR article, \"The World Is More Uncertain Than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials,\" covers how minor training can improve decision-making accuracy and highlights the importance of structured feedback and better calibration in national security judgments.","meta_description":"Dr. Jeffrey Friedman, an associate professor at Dartmouth College, reveals striking findings that seasoned national security professionals often misjudge…","key_points":[],"chapters":[],"topics":[],"duration_seconds":2251,"processing_state":"not_requested","actions":[{"name":"request_transcript","method":"POST","url":"https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/horns-of-a-dilemma-697116/episodes/assessing-and-combating-overconfidence-among-2-000-national-security-officials/transcription-requests","description":"Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode."},{"name":"read_markdown","method":"GET","url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/horns-of-a-dilemma-697116/assessing-and-combating-overconfidence-among-2-000-national-security-officials.md","description":"Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource."}]}}