{"podcast":{"title":"Full Signal","slug":"full-signal-7568617","podcast_index_feed_id":7568617,"rss_url":"https://anchor.fm/s/10b3e31fc/podcast/rss","website_url":"https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/philrosen","image_url":"https://d3t3ozftmdmh3i.cloudfront.net/staging/podcast_uploaded_nologo/44735927/44735927-1762224313042-f105205d033e1.jpg","author":"Phil Rosen","episode_count":109,"summary":"Unpacking the highest-conviction investment ideas from the world's smartest investors. Award-winning journalist and market strategist Phil Rosen hosts top portfolio managers, capital allocators and Wall Street executives to uncover how they think about markets, pick stocks, manage risk and generate investment ideas. Phil is the Chief Market Strategist at ProCap Financial and the co-founder & CEO of Opening Bell Media. His daily markets newsletter reaches more than 200,000 investors every morning.","last_synced_at":"2026-09-16T00:17:48.487183+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/full-signal-7568617"},"episode":{"title":"This is how the RECESSION starts in 2026 | Phil Neuhart","slug":"this-is-how-the-recession-starts-in-2026-phil-neuhart","published_at":"2026-04-02T12:00:00+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/full-signal-7568617/this-is-how-the-recession-starts-in-2026-phil-neuhart","show_page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/full-signal-7568617","url":"https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/philrosen/episodes/This-is-how-the-RECESSION-starts-in-2026--Phil-Neuhart-e3had3o","audio_url":"https://anchor.fm/s/10b3e31fc/podcast/play/117830200/https%3A%2F%2Fd3ctxlq1ktw2nl.cloudfront.net%2Fstaging%2F2026-3-2%2F421298392-44100-2-5dfb6ad11501a.mp3","summary":"Phil Neuhart is the Director of Market and Economic Research at First Citizens Wealth. He joins Phil Rosen on Full Signal to break down the tension between rising geopolitical uncertainty and a surprisingly resilient stock market, the real recession trigger to watch in the labor market, why mega caps may be less insulated than investors think, the Fed's impossible position, and what an AI unwind would actually look like. This episode is sponsored by Public: https://public.com/openingbell Subscribe to Opening Bell Daily: https://www.openingbelldailynews.com/subscribe Follow Phil on X: https://x.com/philrosenn Follow Phil on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/philrosen/ Timestamps: 0:00 - Intro 0:20 - Uncertainty vs. resilience 1:30 - Tail risks investors are ignoring 2:50 - The bear case 3:25 - Labor market as a recession trigger 5:40 - Stocks insulated from oil? 6:30 - Earnings season and the multiple contraction 10:20 - Complex Fed outlook 12:55 - What would trigger the first rate cut? 13:50 - Kevin Warsh's problem 15:30 - AI trade rotation 18:10 - Bullish small caps 20:20 - AI as scapegoat for layoffs 24:50 - Recession odds 27:35 - Does history still apply to this market? 28:50 - Follow Phil Neuhart Disclosure: Brokerage services provided by Open to the Public Investing Inc, member FINRA & SIPC. Investing involves risk. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool by Public Advisors. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. See disclosures at public.com/disclosures/ga. See terms of Match Program at https://public.com/disclosures/matchprogram Matched funds must remain in your account for at least 5 years. Match rate and other terms are subject to change at any time. #podcast #investing #markets #macro #sto…","meta_description":"Phil Neuhart is the Director of Market and Economic Research at First Citizens Wealth. He joins Phil Rosen on Full Signal to break down the tension betwee…","key_points":[],"chapters":[],"topics":[],"duration_seconds":1731,"processing_state":"not_requested","actions":[{"name":"request_transcript","method":"POST","url":"https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/full-signal-7568617/episodes/this-is-how-the-recession-starts-in-2026-phil-neuhart/transcription-requests","description":"Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode."},{"name":"read_markdown","method":"GET","url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/full-signal-7568617/this-is-how-the-recession-starts-in-2026-phil-neuhart.md","description":"Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource."}]}}