{"podcast":{"title":"Excess Returns","slug":"excess-returns-902655","podcast_index_feed_id":902655,"rss_url":"https://anchor.fm/s/9a1dfac/podcast/rss","website_url":"https://excessreturnspod.com","image_url":"https://d3t3ozftmdmh3i.cloudfront.net/staging/podcast_uploaded_nologo/1516035/1516035-1743436234284-87994a171a4a2.jpg","author":"Excess Returns","episode_count":560,"summary":"Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.","last_synced_at":"2026-09-13T06:18:13.262156+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655"},"episode":{"title":"We Asked T. Rowe's $8 Billion Tech Manager Why We Are in 1998 — And Why Software Is in Trouble","slug":"we-asked-t-rowe-s-8-billion-tech-manager-why-we-are-in-1998-and-why-software-is-in-trouble","published_at":"2026-08-11T15:24:58+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655/we-asked-t-rowe-s-8-billion-tech-manager-why-we-are-in-1998-and-why-software-is-in-trouble","show_page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655","url":"https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/excess-returns/episodes/We-Asked-T--Rowes-8-Billion-Tech-Manager-Why-We-Are-in-1998--And-Why-Software-Is-in-Trouble-e3n90mi","audio_url":"https://traffic.megaphone.fm/APO9129161882.mp3","summary":"T. Rowe Price technology portfolio manager Dom Rizzo joins Jack Forehand and Kai Wu to break down the AI investment cycle, hyperscaler capital spending, semiconductor demand, and why the recent tech selloff may look more like 1998 than the end of the boom. They discuss AI return on investment, OpenAI and Anthropic, open versus closed models, financing the data center buildout, the future of software, labor productivity, and how to construct a global technology portfolio. Topics covered Why Dom sees similarities between the 2026 semiconductor correction and the 1998 selloff Why hyperscaler AI CapEx could accelerate from already historic levels What cloud revenue growth and operating margins say about AI return on invested capital Why end-user productivity is the key test for sustainable AI demand Open-weight models versus frontier labs and where AI economic value may accrue Why chips, memory, logic semiconductors, TSMC and ASML sit at critical points in the AI value chain How equity, debt and operating cash flow could finance the next stage of the data center buildout Why semiconductors remain cyclical even in a structurally capital-intensive AI boom Why AI agents could turn traditional enterprise software into data pipes AI productivity, labor displacement and the case for faster GDP growth How Dom thinks about technology portfolio construction, risk factors and global stock selection Timestamps 00:00 AI, the tech correction and the 1998 comparison 04:07 Why the AI capital spending cycle may only be halfway 12:33 The real test for AI demand: end-user ROI 17:00 Why frontier models may capture most of the economic value 21:23 Where the biggest AI moats and profit pools could emerge 28:12 Financing the AI buildout with equity and debt 36:03 Are semiconductors in a supercy…","meta_description":"T. Rowe Price technology portfolio manager Dom Rizzo joins Jack Forehand and Kai Wu to break down the AI investment cycle, hyperscaler capital spending, s…","key_points":[],"chapters":[],"topics":[],"duration_seconds":3638,"processing_state":"not_requested","actions":[{"name":"request_transcript","method":"POST","url":"https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/excess-returns-902655/episodes/we-asked-t-rowe-s-8-billion-tech-manager-why-we-are-in-1998-and-why-software-is-in-trouble/transcription-requests","description":"Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode."},{"name":"read_markdown","method":"GET","url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655/we-asked-t-rowe-s-8-billion-tech-manager-why-we-are-in-1998-and-why-software-is-in-trouble.md","description":"Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource."}]}}