{"podcast":{"title":"Excess Returns","slug":"excess-returns-902655","podcast_index_feed_id":902655,"rss_url":"https://anchor.fm/s/9a1dfac/podcast/rss","website_url":"https://excessreturnspod.com","image_url":"https://d3t3ozftmdmh3i.cloudfront.net/staging/podcast_uploaded_nologo/1516035/1516035-1743436234284-87994a171a4a2.jpg","author":"Excess Returns","episode_count":538,"summary":"Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.","last_synced_at":"2026-07-24T02:20:13.514542+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655"},"episode":{"title":"Tech Spending Has a Cash Problem | Jim Paulsen on the Two Signals That Could Trigger a Correction","slug":"tech-spending-has-a-cash-problem-jim-paulsen-on-the-two-signals-that-could-trigger-a-correction","published_at":"2026-06-04T20:50:10+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655/tech-spending-has-a-cash-problem-jim-paulsen-on-the-two-signals-that-could-trigger-a-correction","show_page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655","url":"https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/excess-returns/episodes/Tech-Spending-Has-a-Cash-Problem--Jim-Paulsen-on-the-Two-Signals-That-Could-Trigger-a-Correction-e3kbor9","audio_url":"https://traffic.megaphone.fm/APO3103189954.mp3","summary":"Jim Paulsen returns to Excess Returns to discuss why he is increasingly concerned about a meaningful stock market pullback, even though he does not expect a bear market. We cover the extreme divide between AI-driven “new era” stocks and the rest of the market, what oil and inflation could mean for the Fed, why tech earnings and market leadership have become so concentrated, and what investors should watch as the economy potentially shifts from inflation fears to growth fears. Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts Jim Paulsen on X https://x.com/jimwpaulsen Paulsen Perspectives https://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/ Topics Covered Why Jim thinks the economy could weaken into the summer and fall The risk of a sharp stock market pullback without a full bear market How inflation, oil prices and geopolitical conflict are affecting the market Why the Fed may face a difficult decision under Kevin Warsh The extreme divide between new era tech stocks and old era stocks Why AI and innovation need to benefit the broader economy to be sustainable How tech earnings have become concentrated in only two S&P 500 sectors Why small-cap tech and unprofitable tech leadership may be a warning sign What past oil price peaks suggest about stock market corrections Why investor focus may shift from inflation risk to growth risk How this bull market has been driven by a series of booms in Mag 7, Bitcoin, gold, oil and AI Timestamps 00:00 Why AI has to benefit more than the tech sector 05:18 Inflation, oil prices and the impact of geopolitical conflict 10:54 New era stocks versus old era stocks 15:43 Corporate cash, AI spending and pressure on tech investment 20:17 Policy tightening and why economic momentum may slow 25:31 Why…","meta_description":"Jim Paulsen returns to Excess Returns to discuss why he is increasingly concerned about a meaningful stock market pullback, even though he does not expect…","key_points":[],"chapters":[],"topics":[],"duration_seconds":3701,"processing_state":"not_requested","actions":[{"name":"request_transcript","method":"POST","url":"https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/excess-returns-902655/episodes/tech-spending-has-a-cash-problem-jim-paulsen-on-the-two-signals-that-could-trigger-a-correction/transcription-requests","description":"Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode."},{"name":"read_markdown","method":"GET","url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655/tech-spending-has-a-cash-problem-jim-paulsen-on-the-two-signals-that-could-trigger-a-correction.md","description":"Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource."}]}}