{"podcast":{"title":"Excess Returns","slug":"excess-returns-902655","podcast_index_feed_id":902655,"rss_url":"https://anchor.fm/s/9a1dfac/podcast/rss","website_url":"https://excessreturnspod.com","image_url":"https://d3t3ozftmdmh3i.cloudfront.net/staging/podcast_uploaded_nologo/1516035/1516035-1743436234284-87994a171a4a2.jpg","author":"Excess Returns","episode_count":538,"summary":"Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.","last_synced_at":"2026-07-24T02:20:13.514542+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655"},"episode":{"title":"Jim Paulsen Sees a Correction Coming | The 33 Charts That Turned Him Cautious","slug":"jim-paulsen-sees-a-correction-coming-the-33-charts-that-turned-him-cautious","published_at":"2026-07-11T13:18:55+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655/jim-paulsen-sees-a-correction-coming-the-33-charts-that-turned-him-cautious","show_page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655","url":"https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/excess-returns/episodes/Jim-Paulsen-Sees-a-Correction-Coming--The-33-Charts-That-Turned-Him-Cautious-e3luo8e","audio_url":"https://anchor.fm/s/9a1dfac/podcast/play/122691278/https%3A%2F%2Fd3ctxlq1ktw2nl.cloudfront.net%2Fstaging%2F2026-6-11%2F427766432-44100-2-d44d96b265539.mp3","summary":"Jim Paulsen joins us to explain why weakening economic momentum, tightening financial conditions and extreme AI enthusiasm could set the stage for a 10% to 20% stock market correction. We discuss labor market weakness, the growing divide between technology and the broader economy, fading tech leadership, market complacency, bond yields and the demographic forces that could keep US growth and inflation lower for years. Jim also explains why he does not expect a recession or the end of the long-term bull market, but believes investors may need to reduce their concentration in AI and technology stocks as leadership quietly shifts toward the broader market. Jim Paulsen on X https://x.com/jimwpaulsen Paulsen Perspectives https://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/ Main topics covered • Why Jim expects a 10% to 20% market correction without a recession • What zero job creation, declining full-time employment and rising unemployment reveal about the labor market • Why housing starts, real disposable income and GDP forecasts point to weaker economic growth • How higher Treasury yields, oil prices, a stronger dollar and slower money growth have tightened financial conditions • Why the economic damage from an oil shock often appears after oil prices peak • The widening earnings and economic divide between AI investment and the rest of the economy • What investor positioning, shrinking liquidity and low defensive exposure reveal about market complacency • Why strong earnings momentum does not eliminate the risk of a market decline • Evidence that technology, communication services and the Magnificent Seven are losing market leadership • Why old economy sectors may outperform technology during the next stage of the bull market • How weak labor force growth could push economic growth…","meta_description":"Jim Paulsen joins us to explain why weakening economic momentum, tightening financial conditions and extreme AI enthusiasm could set the stage for a 10% t…","key_points":[],"chapters":[],"topics":[],"duration_seconds":3523,"processing_state":"not_requested","actions":[{"name":"request_transcript","method":"POST","url":"https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/excess-returns-902655/episodes/jim-paulsen-sees-a-correction-coming-the-33-charts-that-turned-him-cautious/transcription-requests","description":"Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode."},{"name":"read_markdown","method":"GET","url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655/jim-paulsen-sees-a-correction-coming-the-33-charts-that-turned-him-cautious.md","description":"Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource."}]}}