{"podcast":{"title":"Daily Updates on Russian Invasion of Ukraine","slug":"daily-updates-on-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-7410811","podcast_index_feed_id":7410811,"rss_url":"https://feed.podbean.com/ProfessorGerdes/feed.xml","website_url":"https://ProfessorGerdes.podbean.com","image_url":"https://pbcdn1.podbean.com/imglogo/image-logo/21035801/hqdefault.jpg","author":"Professor Gerdes","episode_count":100,"summary":"Daily Updates on Russian Invasion of Ukraine","last_synced_at":"2026-09-19T02:22:03.276512+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/daily-updates-on-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-7410811"},"episode":{"title":"Trump’s Envoys Are Negotiating With Putin All Wrong—Here’s Why","slug":"trump-s-envoys-are-negotiating-with-putin-all-wrong-here-s-why","published_at":"2026-09-07T17:30:38+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/daily-updates-on-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-7410811/trump-s-envoys-are-negotiating-with-putin-all-wrong-here-s-why","show_page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/daily-updates-on-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-7410811","url":"https://ProfessorGerdes.podbean.com/e/trump-s-envoys-are-negotiating-with-putin-all-wrong%e2%80%94here-s-why/","audio_url":"https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/71riogfv5k5eq4cn/yt_video_zoWXfiX23ko_i3bw7e.mp3","summary":"I examine why Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff’s win-win framing for peace talks may misread the strategic problem posed by Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine. In a press exchange, they were asked whether the United States would increase pressure as Russia escalates its war, intensifies hybrid pressure on NATO, and deepens ties with Iran and North Korea. Their response emphasized mutual benefit and the business logic of creating value for both sides.I argue that war termination requires a different framework: changing an adversary’s expected calculation. Putin does not need to believe war benefits everyone; he only needs to believe continued fighting serves his objectives better than the settlement available. I contrast the Abraham Accords with an existential territorial conflict, explain the role of Ukrainian resistance and Western support in reducing Russia’s perceived chance of success, and consider how refinery strikes, war-economy costs, and monetary pressure could alter Kremlin incentives.00:00 Kushner and Witkoff’s Strategic Mistake01:56 The Win-Win Framework04:04 The Abraham Accords vs. an Existential War06:01 Putin’s Expected-Value War Calculation08:20 Why Ukraine Is a Zero-Sum Conflict09:52 A Leverage-Based Diplomacy Framework12:08 Refinery Strikes and Russian Monetary Pressure14:36 What Could Change Putin’s Incentives#Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Kushner #Witkoff #DeterrenceFacts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.Fundraisers video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMTs6amkGUg and Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ - Ukrainian Refugee M's Room and Board is covered for this year. It is not for the rest of her time at CSU. I will be pushing on the other fun…","meta_description":"I examine why Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff’s win-win framing for peace talks may misread the strategic problem posed by Vladimir Putin’s war against Uk…","key_points":[],"chapters":[],"topics":[],"duration_seconds":980,"processing_state":"not_requested","actions":[{"name":"request_transcript","method":"POST","url":"https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/daily-updates-on-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-7410811/episodes/trump-s-envoys-are-negotiating-with-putin-all-wrong-here-s-why/transcription-requests","description":"Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode."},{"name":"read_markdown","method":"GET","url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/daily-updates-on-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-7410811/trump-s-envoys-are-negotiating-with-putin-all-wrong-here-s-why.md","description":"Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource."}]}}