{"podcast":{"title":"Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)","slug":"complex-systems-with-patrick-mckenzie-patio11-6944962","podcast_index_feed_id":6944962,"rss_url":"https://feeds.transistor.fm/complex-systems-with-patrick-mckenzie-patio11","website_url":"https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com","image_url":"https://img.transistorcdn.com/daBTNOHQVDwsyvBT5Y1dmtX8J3KGSjYDycHstNU2MOw/rs:fill:0:0:1/w:1400/h:1400/q:60/mb:500000/aHR0cHM6Ly9pbWct/dXBsb2FkLXByb2R1/Y3Rpb24udHJhbnNp/c3Rvci5mbS8zMzM5/OTY4ZTE5ODVjZjk0/MzhhZWEzMjRmZjdm/ZWNhYS5wbmc.jpg","author":"Patrick McKenzie","episode_count":97,"summary":"We live in a world where our civilization and daily lives depend upon institutions, infrastructure, and technological substrates that are _complicated_ but not _unknowable_. Join Patrick McKenzie (patio11) as he discusses how decisions, technology, culture, and incentives shape our finance, technology, government, and more, with the people who built (and build) those Complex Systems.","last_synced_at":"2026-07-16T16:19:13.615743+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/complex-systems-with-patrick-mckenzie-patio11-6944962"},"episode":{"title":"Wrong numbers and why they survive, with Aaron Brown","slug":"wrong-numbers-and-why-they-survive-with-aaron-brown","published_at":"2026-05-14T07:00:00+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/complex-systems-with-patrick-mckenzie-patio11-6944962/wrong-numbers-and-why-they-survive-with-aaron-brown","show_page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/complex-systems-with-patrick-mckenzie-patio11-6944962","url":"https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/aaron-brown/","audio_url":"https://pscrb.fm/rss/p/prfx.byspotify.com/e/media.transistor.fm/2749c20f/5d12cc8b.mp3","summary":"Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Aaron Brown, author of Wrong Number, to examine why institutions that produce bad statistics face so few consequences for doing so. They trace the pattern from Aaron's 1975 summer job, where two credentialed experts confidently produced opposite conclusions about whether American tractors ran on diesel or gasoline, through decades of case studies involving the NTSB, COVID-era research, and the eviction moratorium. Along the way they discuss why financial markets are unusually good at error-correction, why \"wanna bet?\" functions as a tax on bullshit, and what it means that every senior economist Aaron told about the tractor problem simply laughed and topped it with a worse story. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/aaron-brown/ – Presenting Sponsors: Mercury & Granola Complex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury offers the best wire experience anywhere: fast, reliable, and free for domestic U.S. wires, so you can stay focused on growing your business. Apply online in minutes at mercury.com . If meetings consistently leave you with hazy action items and lost context, Granola handles the transcription so you can actually participate and gives you searchable notes afterward. Try it free at granola.ai/complexsystems with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS – Links: Wrong Number (book): https://www.amazon.com/Wrong-Number-Blizzard-Quantitative-Disinformation/dp/1394379781 Wrong Number with Aaron Brown (video series): https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLBuns9Evn1w_SLGfUY5i__wzUF5f8e7ec – Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:12) The agricultural demand curve discrepancy (04:06) Why experts prioritize teaching over learning (05:17) Institutional indifference to error (06:26) T…","meta_description":"Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Aaron Brown, author of Wrong Number, to examine why institutions that produce bad statistics face so few consequen…","key_points":[],"chapters":[],"topics":[],"duration_seconds":3336,"processing_state":"not_requested","actions":[{"name":"request_transcript","method":"POST","url":"https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/complex-systems-with-patrick-mckenzie-patio11-6944962/episodes/wrong-numbers-and-why-they-survive-with-aaron-brown/transcription-requests","description":"Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode."},{"name":"read_markdown","method":"GET","url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/complex-systems-with-patrick-mckenzie-patio11-6944962/wrong-numbers-and-why-they-survive-with-aaron-brown.md","description":"Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource."}]}}