{"podcast":{"title":"Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia","slug":"charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792","podcast_index_feed_id":7819792,"rss_url":"https://feed.podbean.com/chargedalpha/feed.xml","website_url":"https://chargedalpha.podbean.com","image_url":"https://pbcdn1.podbean.com/imglogo/image-logo/22241603/charged_alpha_logo_2048.png","author":"Colton Thomas","episode_count":1034,"summary":"Charged Alpha reviews earnings for each stock in the Russel 1000 every quarter. Each podcast gives thorough analysis, along with an in-depth profile in the beginning of the episode of the company, what they do, how they earn money and what to look for.","last_synced_at":"2026-07-18T10:20:29.083898+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792"},"episode":{"title":"SMPL Stock: Simply Good Foods Beat Earnings but Sales Fell — Cheap Turnaround or Value Trap?","slug":"smpl-stock-simply-good-foods-beat-earnings-but-sales-fell-cheap-turnaround-or-value-trap","published_at":"2026-07-09T19:15:45+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792/smpl-stock-simply-good-foods-beat-earnings-but-sales-fell-cheap-turnaround-or-value-trap","show_page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792","url":"https://chargedalpha.podbean.com/e/smpl-stock-simply-good-foods-beat-earnings-but-sales-fell-%e2%80%94-cheap-turnaround-or-value-trap/","audio_url":"https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/q3e9d689odbyw61i/audio_p.mp3","summary":"Simply Good Foods (SMPL) Q3 FY2026 — Simply Good Foods (Quest, Atkins, OWYN) beat with adjusted EPS of $0.42 vs $0.35, but net sales fell 6% to $357M, an $82M impairment drove a GAAP loss of $(0.58), Atkins collapsed 24.6%, and full-year guidance implies a down year. Simply Good Foods has fallen ~62% from ~$34 to ~$13. It's cheap (~6x EV/EBITDA), cash-generative, and squarely in the protein-snacking megatrend with founder Joe Scalzo back as CEO — but sales and margins are falling, Atkins is collapsing, OWYN is stalling, and GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are a real overhang. Our DCF lands ~$12 vs the ~$13 price, so this is a show-me HOLD. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, SHOW-ME TURNAROUND) — base-case value ~$12 vs ~$13 today. KEY METRICS: - Q3 FY26: net sales $357M (-6.3%); adjusted EPS $0.42 (beat $0.35, but -18% YoY); GAAP EPS $(0.58) on an $82M impairment - Brands: Quest $230.3M (+1.1%), Atkins $84.6M (-24.6% collapsing), OWYN $34.8M (+3.6% net sales but takeaway -1.3%) - Gross margin 32.5% (-390 bps); adjusted EBITDA $57.2M (-22.5%, 16% margin); marketing spend up ~16% - Balance sheet: $124M cash vs $400M term debt (net debt $276M, 1.2x EBITDA); YTD FCF ~$110M; no dividend; $213M buybacks YTD - FY26 guidance: net sales ~$1.35B (-6% to -7%), adjusted EBITDA ~$220-225M (-19% to -21%) — a down year; Q4 softer - Founder Joe Scalzo returned as CEO Jan 2026 — the turnaround is one quarter old with no proof yet - Valuation ~$13 (down ~62% from ~$34), ~6x EV/EBITDA, ~12x P/FCF — cheap only if the decline bottoms - Owner-earnings DCF (base ~$110M FCF, -4%/+1%, 9-11%): ~$12 fair value vs ~$13 price — essentially fair, wide range - Central debate: GLP-1 weight-loss drugs — demand destruction for snacks vs. GLP-1 users needing more protein What to watch: the OWYN retail takeaway trend, Quest's…","meta_description":"Simply Good Foods (SMPL) Q3 FY2026 — Simply Good Foods (Quest, Atkins, OWYN) beat with adjusted EPS of $0.42 vs $0.35, but net sales fell 6% to $357M, an…","key_points":[],"chapters":[],"topics":[],"duration_seconds":763,"processing_state":"not_requested","actions":[{"name":"request_transcript","method":"POST","url":"https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792/episodes/smpl-stock-simply-good-foods-beat-earnings-but-sales-fell-cheap-turnaround-or-value-trap/transcription-requests","description":"Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode."},{"name":"read_markdown","method":"GET","url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792/smpl-stock-simply-good-foods-beat-earnings-but-sales-fell-cheap-turnaround-or-value-trap.md","description":"Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource."}]}}