{"podcast":{"title":"Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia","slug":"charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792","podcast_index_feed_id":7819792,"rss_url":"https://feed.podbean.com/chargedalpha/feed.xml","website_url":"https://chargedalpha.podbean.com","image_url":"https://pbcdn1.podbean.com/imglogo/image-logo/22241603/charged_alpha_logo_2048.png","author":"Colton Thomas","episode_count":1034,"summary":"Charged Alpha reviews earnings for each stock in the Russel 1000 every quarter. Each podcast gives thorough analysis, along with an in-depth profile in the beginning of the episode of the company, what they do, how they earn money and what to look for.","last_synced_at":"2026-07-18T10:20:29.083898+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792"},"episode":{"title":"Alcoa Stock: AA Posted a RECORD Q2 2026 — So Why Is It Down 46%? (Bargain or Value Trap?)","slug":"alcoa-stock-aa-posted-a-record-q2-2026-so-why-is-it-down-46-bargain-or-value-trap","published_at":"2026-07-17T18:26:24+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792/alcoa-stock-aa-posted-a-record-q2-2026-so-why-is-it-down-46-bargain-or-value-trap","show_page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792","url":"https://chargedalpha.podbean.com/e/alcoa-stock-aa-posted-a-record-q2-2026-%e2%80%94-so-why-is-it-down-46-bargain-or-value-trap/","audio_url":"https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/472ltnir55odiqmp/audio_g.mp3","summary":"Alcoa Corporation (AA) Q2 2026 — Alcoa (AA) reported a record Q2 2026: revenue $3.97B (+24% QoQ, +31% YoY, a company record), adjusted EBITDA $901M (+51% QoQ), and adjusted EPS $2.12 — but that missed the ~$2.25 Street estimate, and the stock fell ~3.4% to ~$45. GAAP EPS was $1.53 ($407M net income); the 'miss' was driven by $155M of net special items (a $123M Ma'aden mark-to-market loss and $45M on energy contracts). Under the hood it was a tale of two segments: the aluminum segment earned a RECORD $1,073M EBITDA on a record realized price of $4,752/t (+51% YoY), while the alumina segment LOST $96M with its $334/t price below a $368/t cost. Free cash flow was $422M; net debt just $873M against $1.4B cash; dividend $0.10/qtr. Alcoa also agreed to buy South32's bauxite/alumina/aluminum assets ('AliGroup') for ~$4.1B upfront plus up to $750M, and cut 2026 alumina production guidance (Pinjarra/cyclone) while holding aluminum. Our EV/EBITDA scenario work lands ~$46 on mid-cycle EBITDA (~$2.4B x 5.5x, less net debt, / 264M shares) — essentially on top of the ~$45 price. Wall Street: Buy (23 of 42), avg target ~$68.50. Our call: HOLD, 3/5 — a well-run cyclical at fair mid-cycle value, at what looks like the top of the aluminum cycle. Alcoa is one of the world's largest pure-play upstream aluminum producers — it mines bauxite, refines it into alumina, and smelts alumina into aluminum, so its profits ride two volatile commodity prices. In Q2 2026 it delivered a record quarter: revenue $3.97B (+24% QoQ), adjusted EBITDA $901M (+51% QoQ), and a record realized aluminum price of $4,752/t that drove a record $1,073M aluminum-segment EBITDA. And yet the stock sits near a 52-week low, down ~46% from its $84 high, and fell ~3.4% on the print because adjusted EPS of $2.12 missed the ~…","meta_description":"Alcoa Corporation (AA) Q2 2026 — Alcoa (AA) reported a record Q2 2026: revenue $3.97B (+24% QoQ, +31% YoY, a company record), adjusted EBITDA $901M (+51%…","key_points":[],"chapters":[],"topics":[],"duration_seconds":903,"processing_state":"not_requested","actions":[{"name":"request_transcript","method":"POST","url":"https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792/episodes/alcoa-stock-aa-posted-a-record-q2-2026-so-why-is-it-down-46-bargain-or-value-trap/transcription-requests","description":"Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode."},{"name":"read_markdown","method":"GET","url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792/alcoa-stock-aa-posted-a-record-q2-2026-so-why-is-it-down-46-bargain-or-value-trap.md","description":"Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource."}]}}