{"podcast":{"title":"80,000 Hours Podcast","slug":"80-000-hours-podcast-747608","podcast_index_feed_id":747608,"rss_url":"https://feeds.feedburner.com/80000HoursPodcast","website_url":"https://80000hours.org/podcast/","image_url":"https://img.transistorcdn.com/8dMmMNaSGF1OGBLc-bkepIvasPxJeaJRFTWpl_UqjYU/rs:fill:0:0:1/w:1400/h:1400/q:60/mb:500000/aHR0cHM6Ly9pbWct/dXBsb2FkLXByb2R1/Y3Rpb24udHJhbnNp/c3Rvci5mbS9zaG93/LzQxNDAyLzE2ODM1/NDQ1NDAtYXJ0d29y/ay5qcGc.jpg","author":"The 80,000 Hours team","episode_count":339,"summary":"The most important conversations about artificial intelligence you won’t hear anywhere else. Subscribe by searching for '80000 Hours' wherever you get podcasts. Hosted by Rob Wiblin, Luisa Rodriguez, and Zershaaneh Qureshi.","last_synced_at":"2026-06-12T06:18:33.680116+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/80-000-hours-podcast-747608"},"episode":{"title":"#240 – Samuel Charap on how a Ukraine ceasefire could accidentally set Europe up for a bigger war","slug":"240-samuel-charap-on-how-a-ukraine-ceasefire-could-accidentally-set-europe-up-for-a-bigger-war","published_at":"2026-03-24T16:51:34+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/80-000-hours-podcast-747608/240-samuel-charap-on-how-a-ukraine-ceasefire-could-accidentally-set-europe-up-for-a-bigger-war","show_page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/80-000-hours-podcast-747608","url":"https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/samuel-charap-realistic-ceasefire-ukraine-russia/?utm_campaign=podcast__samuel-charap&utm_source=80000+Hours+Podcast&utm_medium=podcast","audio_url":"https://media.transistor.fm/b2f599be/bc1ed179.mp3","summary":"Many people believe a ceasefire in Ukraine will leave Europe safer. But today's guest lays out how a deal could potentially generate insidious new risks — leaving us in a situation that's equally dangerous, just in different ways. That’s the counterintuitive argument from Samuel Charap , Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy at RAND. He’s not worried about a Russian blitzkrieg on Estonia. He forecasts instead a fragile peace that breaks down and drags in European neighbours; instability in Belarus prompting Russian intervention; hybrid sabotage operations that escalate through tit-for-tat responses. Samuel’s case isn’t that peace is bad, but that the Ukraine conflict has remilitarised Europe, made Russia more resentful, and collapsed diplomatic relations between the two. That’s a postwar environment primed for the kind of miscalculation that starts unintended wars. What he prescribes isn’t a full peace treaty; it’s a negotiated settlement that stops the killing and begins a longer negotiation that gives neither side exactly what it wants, but just enough to deter renewed aggression. Both sides stop dying and the flames of war fizzle — hopefully. None of this is clean or satisfying: Russia invaded, committed war crimes, and is being offered a path back to partial normalcy. But Samuel argues that the alternatives — indefinite war or unstructured ceasefire — are much worse for Ukraine, Europe, and global stability. Links to learn more, video, and full transcript: https://80k.info/sc26 This episode was recorded on February 27, 2026. Chapters: Cold open (00:00:00) Could peace in Ukraine lead to Europe’s next war? (00:00:47) Do Russia’s motives for war still matter? (00:11:58) What does a good ceasefire deal look like? (00:18:16) What’s still holding back a ceasef…","meta_description":"Many people believe a ceasefire in Ukraine will leave Europe safer. But today's guest lays out how a deal could potentially generate insidious new risks —…","key_points":[],"chapters":[],"topics":[],"duration_seconds":4536,"processing_state":"not_requested","actions":[{"name":"request_transcript","method":"POST","url":"https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/80-000-hours-podcast-747608/episodes/240-samuel-charap-on-how-a-ukraine-ceasefire-could-accidentally-set-europe-up-for-a-bigger-war/transcription-requests","description":"Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode."},{"name":"read_markdown","method":"GET","url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/80-000-hours-podcast-747608/240-samuel-charap-on-how-a-ukraine-ceasefire-could-accidentally-set-europe-up-for-a-bigger-war.md","description":"Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource."}]}}