# Protecting the LAST 70% & Why our Merchant Friends LOVE rallies!

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/what-the-futures-6675524/protecting-the-last-70-why-our-merchant-friends-love-rallies
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/what-the-futures-6675524/protecting-the-last-70-why-our-merchant-friends-love-rallies.md
Podcast: [What the Futures!](https://stenobird.com/podcast/what-the-futures-6675524)
Published: 2026-05-15T12:25:00+00:00
Episode link: https://what-the-futures.castos.com/episodes/protecting-the-last-70-why-our-merchant-friends-love-rallies
Audio file: https://episodes.castos.com/651d8de9cb8027-48221946/2463134/c1e-67mn5h791odu6kwn3-mk9kr66gh3rm-ef2rt8.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/what-the-futures-6675524/episodes/protecting-the-last-70-why-our-merchant-friends-love-rallies
Duration seconds: 2294

## Resource

In Episode 122 of the What the Futures podcast, Ryan reviews a volatile week in prairie crop markets after a USDA-driven spike and explains how grain companies often widen or protect basis during rallies, creating large price discrepancies between nearby elevators. He urges farmers to focus on execution during seeding-season market spikes, emphasizing that rallies can materially improve farm profitability and should be evaluated and protected. Using real examples (e.g., Killam vs. Daysland, Alberta; Aberdeen vs. Melfort, Saskatchewan), he compares wheat bids and breaks down futures, currency, and basis to show differences of roughly 50+ cents per bushel. Ryan discusses strategies to manage the remaining unsold crop without high buyout risk, including put options, structured floors with upside, and averaging-type contracts, and encourages active price discovery across buyers. 00:00 USDA Spike Setup 01:30 Short Sweet Focus 02:39 Merchandisers Love Rallies 04:16 This Week Market Recap 05:40 Profitability Wake Up Call 15:47 Execution After Spikes 17:53 How Farms Sell Rallies 21:43 Act Of God Reality 22:29 Protect The Remaining 70 25:02 Elevator Price Math 31:16 Risk Tools And Options 35:54 Eating Your Veggies

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## Transcript

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