# The Four Year Cycle Is Not Broken | Matthew Mezinskis

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/what-bitcoin-did-255500/the-four-year-cycle-is-not-broken-matthew-mezinskis
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/what-bitcoin-did-255500/the-four-year-cycle-is-not-broken-matthew-mezinskis.md
Podcast: [What Bitcoin Did](https://stenobird.com/podcast/what-bitcoin-did-255500)
Published: 2026-03-05T18:00:25+00:00
Episode link: https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/NbYFSx3sz3emDOxDnOIh/files/AUDIO---DEFAULT---c87d9ee8-4d39-4aae-8d40-9d0cf423047f.mp3
Audio file: https://feeds.fountain.fm/UZSKQcrOnhqYS1JopxGg/items/NbYFSx3sz3emDOxDnOIh/files/AUDIO---DEFAULT---c87d9ee8-4d39-4aae-8d40-9d0cf423047f.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/what-bitcoin-did-255500/episodes/the-four-year-cycle-is-not-broken-matthew-mezinskis
Duration seconds: 4589

## Resource

"Statistically, right now, we are basically at the bottom. This is as cheap as Bitcoin gets." Matthew Mezinskis is a macroeconomic researcher, host of Crypto Voices and one of the leading voices on Bitcoin's power law and global money supply data. In this episode, we dig into why Bitcoin's quantile regression is showing we're scraping the absolute floor, why the four-year cycle is completely intact despite everyone calling it dead last year, and what the Fed's balance sheet actually tells us about where Bitcoin goes next. In this episode: • The Power Law: Why Bitcoin at $63k represents the cheapest level relative to trend in its entire history, and what the quantile regression is actually showing • The Four-Year Cycle: How the 2024-2025 price action perfectly follows prior cycles despite the "cycle is dead" narrative. • The 550k Projection: What the power law projects for Bitcoin by 2029-2030. THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS: ANCHORWATCH BLOCKWARE LEDN BITKEY SWAN CLUB ORANGE FOLLOW: Danny Knowles: https://x.com/_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny Matthew Mezinskis: https://x.com/1basemoney

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## Transcript

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