# The Confidence Recession Is Here:
Why Aircraft Deals Are Freezing Before Prices Break | EP 45

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/vref-the-truth-about-the-aviation-market-7473682/the-confidence-recession-is-here-why-aircraft-deals-are-freezing-before-prices-break-ep-45
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/vref-the-truth-about-the-aviation-market-7473682/the-confidence-recession-is-here-why-aircraft-deals-are-freezing-before-prices-break-ep-45.md
Podcast: [VREF | The Truth About the Aviation Market](https://stenobird.com/podcast/vref-the-truth-about-the-aviation-market-7473682)
Published: 2026-07-05T01:04:45+00:00
Episode link: https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/e228c5c8e6da1d95b76218273b8a2999f1559f94b7d944c54f851f2eeacac0f3/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiIyNWRhNTFhNy01ZDA2LTQxYzAtYWZhMS1mOTIyNjM3NDYxNDciLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiJiYWNhN2YwYy1mNWFjLTQzYmMtODg4Ny1mZjVkZGQ2Y2ZjNWUiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2OWNjMWVmYWJiNDBlZDcwMmI1MGI1MmEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmE0OWFjYmFjMzIwMTQ4MDhmN2U2NDhiL2phc29uLXppbGJlcmJyYW5kcy1zdHVkaW8tY29tcG9zZXItMjAyNi03LTVfXzMtMC00Mi5tcDMifQ==.mp3
Audio file: https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/e228c5c8e6da1d95b76218273b8a2999f1559f94b7d944c54f851f2eeacac0f3/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiIyNWRhNTFhNy01ZDA2LTQxYzAtYWZhMS1mOTIyNjM3NDYxNDciLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiJiYWNhN2YwYy1mNWFjLTQzYmMtODg4Ny1mZjVkZGQ2Y2ZjNWUiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2OWNjMWVmYWJiNDBlZDcwMmI1MGI1MmEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmE0OWFjYmFjMzIwMTQ4MDhmN2U2NDhiL2phc29uLXppbGJlcmJyYW5kcy1zdHVkaW8tY29tcG9zZXItMjAyNi03LTVfXzMtMC00Mi5tcDMifQ==.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/vref-the-truth-about-the-aviation-market-7473682/episodes/the-confidence-recession-is-here-why-aircraft-deals-are-freezing-before-prices-break-ep-45
Duration seconds: 1279

## Resource

In this episode, we cover: • Why Bitcoin’s selloff is a useful comparison for what is happening in aviation • Why “meltdown” always depends on the time frame you are using • How market damage often happens long before the public starts panicking • Why aviation is showing the same behavioral pattern as other asset cycles • Why participation dries up before prices visibly break • How sentiment cracks before sellers admit the market has changed • Why leverage gets flushed out late in the cycle, not early • Why headlines usually show up at the loudest and least useful stage • Why the real question is not whether the sky is falling today • Why the better question is what behavior was telling you three months ago • Why Jason sees the current aircraft market as a confidence recession, not a simple crash • Why volume tells the story first • Why price is a lagging indicator • How sticky asking prices can hide a frozen market underneath • Why sellers stay anchored to yesterday’s comps • Why transactions, inquiries, days on market, and failed deals matter more than asking prices • How soft volume and sticky pricing create stalemate • Why a stalemate eventually has to break • The four things that can break a frozen market: lower prices, seller capitulation, looser financing, or returning confidence • Why aircraft market participants often read the data in the wrong order • Why volume goes first, then time on market stretches, then retrades appear, and only later do asking prices move • Why closed sale prices are often the most lagging data point in the chain • Why some experienced brokers going from 10 to 15 annual closings to zero is a major warning sign • Why individual broker pipelines may reveal market truth before industry statistics catch up • Why averages can lie during tra…

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## Transcript

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