# The 1 in 18,900 Bet | Practical Lessons from Michael Maboussin, Katie Stockton, Ben Hunt, Kuppy and Aahan Menon

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/two-quants-and-a-financial-planner-6020642/the-1-in-18-900-bet-practical-lessons-from-michael-maboussin-katie-stockton-ben-hunt-kuppy-and-aahan-menon
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/two-quants-and-a-financial-planner-6020642/the-1-in-18-900-bet-practical-lessons-from-michael-maboussin-katie-stockton-ben-hunt-kuppy-and-aahan-menon.md
Podcast: [Two Quants and a Financial Planner](https://stenobird.com/podcast/two-quants-and-a-financial-planner-6020642)
Published: 2026-04-05T17:20:17+00:00
Episode link: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/education-financial-plan/episodes/The-1-in-18-900-Bet--Practical-Lessons-from-Michael-Maboussin--Katie-Stockton--Ben-Hunt--Kuppy-and-Aahan-Menon-e3hfduv
Audio file: https://anchor.fm/s/d9f6e850/podcast/play/117994911/https%3A%2F%2Fd3ctxlq1ktw2nl.cloudfront.net%2Fstaging%2F2026-3-5%2F421457234-44100-2-b763e6878fc02.mp3
Processing state: not_requested
JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/two-quants-and-a-financial-planner-6020642/episodes/the-1-in-18-900-bet-practical-lessons-from-michael-maboussin-katie-stockton-ben-hunt-kuppy-and-aahan-menon
Duration seconds: 3996

## Resource

This episode of Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together the most important ideas from a packed week of interviews, covering AI and base rates, the Magnificent Seven, commodities, macro risks, and practical investing frameworks. Jack Forehand and Kai Wu break down key clips from Michael Mauboussin, Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman, Ben Hunt, Katie Stockton, and Aahan Menon to extract timeless lessons investors can apply across different market environments. The conversation moves from AI expectations and economic profit to geopolitical “common knowledge” moments, commodity dynamics, trend following, and the importance of thinking in probabilities and time horizons. Topics Covered: Why OpenAI’s growth expectations are historically unprecedented and what base rates actually tell us How base rates should guide expectations without limiting outlier outcomes like Amazon Why large companies are growing faster today and the role of intangible assets and software The concentration of economic profit in the Magnificent Seven and what it implies for valuations Why long-term time horizons create a structural edge in investing The concept of “common knowledge” and how it reshapes markets during geopolitical events Where AI value will accrue: companies vs consumers vs suppliers Why commodities behave differently from stocks and bonds during supply shocks How trend following works and why commodities are uniquely suited to it Why investing is a probabilities game and how to manage uncertainty and position sizing How technical indicators like the 200-day moving average should actually be used Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and overview of Weekly Wrap format 00:02:05 Michael Mauboussin on OpenAI growth and base rates 00:06:18 Why base rates matter but don’t define outcomes 00:09:50 Why large compa…

## Actions

- request_transcript: `POST https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/two-quants-and-a-financial-planner-6020642/episodes/the-1-in-18-900-bet-practical-lessons-from-michael-maboussin-katie-stockton-ben-hunt-kuppy-and-aahan-menon/transcription-requests` — Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode.
- read_markdown: `GET https://stenobird.com/podcast/two-quants-and-a-financial-planner-6020642/the-1-in-18-900-bet-practical-lessons-from-michael-maboussin-katie-stockton-ben-hunt-kuppy-and-aahan-menon.md` — Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource.

A page view does not enqueue transcription. Agents should invoke `request_transcript` explicitly when they need this episode processed.

## Transcript

Full transcripts are not published on public pages unless there is a clear rights basis.