# TTU152: Where is the Open? ft. Toby Crabel

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-761537/ttu152-where-is-the-open-ft-toby-crabel
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-761537/ttu152-where-is-the-open-ft-toby-crabel.md
Podcast: [Top Traders Unplugged](https://stenobird.com/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-761537)
Published: 2026-04-15T04:00:00+00:00
Episode link: http://localhost:8888/TopTradersUnplugged/ttu-2021/homepage/ttu152-where-is-the-open-ft-toby-crabel
Audio file: https://episodes.captivate.fm/episode/4e1ca08b-fc80-414b-86d6-15f75b85c68f.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/top-traders-unplugged-761537/episodes/ttu152-where-is-the-open-ft-toby-crabel
Duration seconds: 3911

## Resource

Markets are not stable systems. They evolve, adapt, and quietly erode the edges traders rely on. In this episode, Toby Crabel reflects on decades of experience navigating that reality, from the early days of Opening Range Breakout strategies to today’s fragmented and highly competitive landscape. He explains why momentum behaves differently now, how liquidity has shifted across sessions, and why execution has become a defining edge. The conversation also explores the limits of AI, the persistence of technical principles, and the importance of adapting without overfitting. At its core, this is a discussion about humility, uncertainty, and staying relevant as markets change. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written  here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to  info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on  iTunes  or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter . Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn and YouTube . Find out more about DUNN Capital Follow Crabel Capital Management on LinkedIn. Episode Timestamps: 00:00 - Markets are probabilistic and inherently uncertain 01:40 - Introduction to Toby Crabel and his career 03:01 - From tennis to trading and early market exposure 06:10 - Opening range breakout and early momentum edge 08:04 - Why…

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## Transcript

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