# SI411: Why the Best Portfolios Are Built to Be Wrong ft. David Dredge & Richard Brennan

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-761537/si411-why-the-best-portfolios-are-built-to-be-wrong-ft-david-dredge-richard-brennan
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-761537/si411-why-the-best-portfolios-are-built-to-be-wrong-ft-david-dredge-richard-brennan.md
Podcast: [Top Traders Unplugged](https://stenobird.com/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-761537)
Published: 2026-08-01T04:00:00+00:00
Episode link: http://localhost:8888/TopTradersUnplugged/ttu-2021/homepage/si411-why-markets-are-more-fragile-than-they-look-ft-david-dredge-richard-brennan
Audio file: https://episodes.captivate.fm/episode/17968c6c-8c51-4684-954e-3f6810ab72c3.mp3
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Duration seconds: 7174

## Resource

The future isn’t hidden. It hasn’t been written yet. That idea anchors this foundational conversation between Dave Dredge, Richard Brennan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, on what risk really means in markets. They challenge the mathematics behind modern portfolio construction, exposing how calm conditions can conceal leverage, how diversification can fail when it matters most, and why familiar measures such as volatility and Sharpe ratios often miss the forces that lead to permanent loss. From path dependency and complex adaptive systems to trend following, convexity and the geometry of wealth, this episode offers a different framework for investing under uncertainty. For anyone responsible for preserving and compounding capital, this is essential listening. Because the strongest portfolio is not the one built around being right, but the one prepared to survive being wrong. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written  here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to  info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on  iTunes  or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on Twitter . Follow David on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Market review, July performance and introducing Dave Dredge 08:01 - Why markets are complex adaptive systems 18:49 - Price inse…

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