# What a Quieter Fed Could Mean for Markets Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/thoughts-on-the-market-980853/what-a-quieter-fed-could-mean-for-markets Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/thoughts-on-the-market-980853/what-a-quieter-fed-could-mean-for-markets.md Podcast: [Thoughts on the Market](https://stenobird.com/podcast/thoughts-on-the-market-980853) Published: 2026-06-24T20:00:00+00:00 Episode link: https://pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/rss.art19.com/episodes/9e5754f2-fbd2-45c7-a090-867e949b18d6.mp3?rss_browser=BAhJIg90cmFuc2NyaWJyBjoGRVQ%3D--952c5701c84ad333c69d5faa668f8177091704f0 Audio file: https://pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/rss.art19.com/episodes/9e5754f2-fbd2-45c7-a090-867e949b18d6.mp3?rss_browser=BAhJIg90cmFuc2NyaWJyBjoGRVQ%3D--952c5701c84ad333c69d5faa668f8177091704f0 Processing state: not_requested JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market-980853/episodes/what-a-quieter-fed-could-mean-for-markets Duration seconds: 232 ## Resource In his first meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh signaled restraint in providing guidance. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets looks at possible impacts of the new approach. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.  Today, why the Fed could do less than expected and why that could still lead to more volatility.  It's Wednesday, June 24th at 2pm in London.  Last week saw the first meeting of the Federal Reserve under its new chair, Kevin Warsh. It didn't disappoint.  The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections saw significantly higher inflation than the last iteration in March, and in turn, a much stronger case to raise interest rates, perhaps multiple times. The Fed's statement, which laid out its views around the economy and its reasons for action, was changed dramatically – and also significantly shortened.  We don't think the Fed will ultimately follow through on the interest rate rises that were flagged in this meeting and will choose instead to remain on hold this year. But we think this scenario of them staying on hold can still lead to more volatility.  I'll try to address each side of this apparent contradiction.  First, the Fed is clearly worried about inflation, which has been elevated for a considerable period of time. But working through the numbers, Morgan Stanley economists forecast lower inflation over the rest of this year than the Fed now expects. And so, while we think it would be entirely reasonable for the Fed to expect to raise interest rates based on the high inflation that they have penciled in, we think they could reach a different conclusion if our lo… ## Actions - request_transcript: `POST https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market-980853/episodes/what-a-quieter-fed-could-mean-for-markets/transcription-requests` — Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode. - read_markdown: `GET https://stenobird.com/podcast/thoughts-on-the-market-980853/what-a-quieter-fed-could-mean-for-markets.md` — Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource. A page view does not enqueue transcription. Agents should invoke `request_transcript` explicitly when they need this episode processed. ## Transcript Full transcripts are not published on public pages unless there is a clear rights basis.