# The Real Drivers of GLP-1 Growth

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/thoughts-on-the-market-980853/the-real-drivers-of-glp-1-growth
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/thoughts-on-the-market-980853/the-real-drivers-of-glp-1-growth.md
Podcast: [Thoughts on the Market](https://stenobird.com/podcast/thoughts-on-the-market-980853)
Published: 2026-04-17T21:00:00+00:00
Episode link: https://pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/rss.art19.com/episodes/b130c00b-4762-4e8f-a1a2-f9095f6254f1.mp3?rss_browser=BAhJIg90cmFuc2NyaWJyBjoGRVQ%3D--952c5701c84ad333c69d5faa668f8177091704f0
Audio file: https://pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/rss.art19.com/episodes/b130c00b-4762-4e8f-a1a2-f9095f6254f1.mp3?rss_browser=BAhJIg90cmFuc2NyaWJyBjoGRVQ%3D--952c5701c84ad333c69d5faa668f8177091704f0
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Duration seconds: 261

## Resource

Our Head of U.S. Pharma and Biotech Terence Flynn discusses how the rapid pace of adoption of weight management treatments could have far-reaching implications across healthcare, consumer behavior and global markets. Read more  insights  from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Terence Flynn, Morgan Stanley’s Head of U.S. Pharma and Biotech Research. Today: the next phase of growth in obesity medicines – the GLP-1 unlock. It’s Friday, April 17th, at 2pm in New York. There are moments in healthcare where innovation, policy, and patient demand all converge. And when they do, the impact can extend far beyond medicine. Now we believe GLP-1 therapies are at one of those moments. We estimate that the obesity medications market could reach around $190 billion at peak across obesity and diabetes. Now, that’s a meaningful step up from prior expectations – and it reflects a shift from early adoption to a much broader, more scalable opportunity. Despite the surge in attention to GLP-1s in the last couple of years, penetration actually remains relatively low today. Only about 6 percent of eligible obesity patients in the U.S. are currently using GLP-1 therapies, and just 2 percent outside the U.S. So, while the growth has been significant, the reality is that we’re still early. And that’s what makes this moment so important. So, we see five drivers that are pushing the next phase of adoption. The first is a shift of oral medications. These therapies have historically been injectables, which limits adoption. But newer oral options are changing that. Notably, just under 80 percent of oral GLP-1 users are new to the category. And this signals real market expansion. Second, expanding access through Medicare. A new U.S. framework is o…

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## Transcript

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