# Global Growth Faces an Energy Test

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/thoughts-on-the-market-980853/global-growth-faces-an-energy-test
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/thoughts-on-the-market-980853/global-growth-faces-an-energy-test.md
Podcast: [Thoughts on the Market](https://stenobird.com/podcast/thoughts-on-the-market-980853)
Published: 2026-05-14T21:00:00+00:00
Episode link: https://pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/rss.art19.com/episodes/7b3fdde4-c2a4-4bae-afc9-5fbe39f0d30c.mp3?rss_browser=BAhJIg90cmFuc2NyaWJyBjoGRVQ%3D--952c5701c84ad333c69d5faa668f8177091704f0
Audio file: https://pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/rss.art19.com/episodes/7b3fdde4-c2a4-4bae-afc9-5fbe39f0d30c.mp3?rss_browser=BAhJIg90cmFuc2NyaWJyBjoGRVQ%3D--952c5701c84ad333c69d5faa668f8177091704f0
Processing state: not_requested
JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market-980853/episodes/global-growth-faces-an-energy-test
Duration seconds: 330

## Resource

Our Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Strategy Seth Carpenter gives his midyear outlook, highlighting why AI investment and U.S. consumers remain key growth engines amid energy shocks. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript ----- Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research.  Today, I want to talk about our mid-year outlook that was just published.  It's Thursday, May 14th at 10am in New York.  Oil, AI, and the consumer now sit at the center of our global economic outlook. With AI and the consumer driving economic momentum in the U.S., the key question is whether the energy shock stays manageable or changes the path for inflation, central banks, and recession risks.  We have had and maintain a fundamentally constructive view on global growth, but the energy shock brings unusually high uncertainty. It boosts inflation, it weighs on growth, and it widens the range of outcomes. We forecast global real GDP growth at 3.2 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027. That is relative to about 3.5 percent in 2025.  So, in our baseline, growth slows modestly this year and then stabilizes and recovers. Writing a forecast is always hard but knowing what to assume about oil prices is even harder than ever now. Our base case assumes that crude returns to about $90 a barrel by the end of this year and declines further in 2027.  If, and I do mean if, that happens, the global economy can likely absorb the shock. But if the current situation persists and we do not see a normalization of shipments of oil, it could spell recession. That scenario probably sees oil prices surge through $150 a barrel, but more importantly, we could shift from a pric…

## Actions

- request_transcript: `POST https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market-980853/episodes/global-growth-faces-an-energy-test/transcription-requests` — Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode.
- read_markdown: `GET https://stenobird.com/podcast/thoughts-on-the-market-980853/global-growth-faces-an-energy-test.md` — Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource.

A page view does not enqueue transcription. Agents should invoke `request_transcript` explicitly when they need this episode processed.

## Transcript

Full transcripts are not published on public pages unless there is a clear rights basis.