# AI and Jobs: What Data and History Say Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/thoughts-on-the-market-980853/ai-and-jobs-what-data-and-history-say Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/thoughts-on-the-market-980853/ai-and-jobs-what-data-and-history-say.md Podcast: [Thoughts on the Market](https://stenobird.com/podcast/thoughts-on-the-market-980853) Published: 2026-05-01T20:00:00+00:00 Episode link: https://pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/rss.art19.com/episodes/f5a3701c-e3c2-4246-a80e-020eb347d0d0.mp3?rss_browser=BAhJIg90cmFuc2NyaWJyBjoGRVQ%3D--952c5701c84ad333c69d5faa668f8177091704f0 Audio file: https://pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/rss.art19.com/episodes/f5a3701c-e3c2-4246-a80e-020eb347d0d0.mp3?rss_browser=BAhJIg90cmFuc2NyaWJyBjoGRVQ%3D--952c5701c84ad333c69d5faa668f8177091704f0 Processing state: not_requested JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market-980853/episodes/ai-and-jobs-what-data-and-history-say Duration seconds: 300 ## Resource Our Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research Seth Carpenter discusses whether the economy can adapt fast enough to turn AI into a productivity boom rather than a labor market shock. Read more  insights  from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript ----- Seth Carpenter:  Welcome to Thoughts in the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research.  Today we're going to try to look past the hype and the anxiety around AI and ask what will be the effect on the labor market.  It's Friday, May 1st at 10am in New York.  Now, odds are that you've used AI to draft an email or summarize a document, maybe learn about a new topic, help plan a trip. The new technology is clearly lowering the cost of certain tasks. And I think the research shows that there are plenty and an increasing number of tasks that AI can do better than most humans. But that's not really the question.  What I hear all the time is, ‘Well, if we can get the same amount of output with less labor, then surely millions of people will lose their job.’ I think the same logic also implies that we can just get a lot more output from the economy using all the labor that we have. And the difference between those two views really is at the heart of the debate.  So far, I would say the data allow for some cautious optimism. Despite rapid advances in AI capability and evidence that adoption is spreading, the broad labor market indicators still show remarkably little disruption. Economic growth is holding in there. The unemployment rate is not rising rapidly. If anything, it's ticked down recently. Job openings are not soaring, and separations do not suggest that there's systematic weakness in AI exposed industries.  Now, productivi… ## Actions - request_transcript: `POST https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market-980853/episodes/ai-and-jobs-what-data-and-history-say/transcription-requests` — Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode. - read_markdown: `GET https://stenobird.com/podcast/thoughts-on-the-market-980853/ai-and-jobs-what-data-and-history-say.md` — Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource. A page view does not enqueue transcription. Agents should invoke `request_transcript` explicitly when they need this episode processed. ## Transcript Full transcripts are not published on public pages unless there is a clear rights basis.