# Beyond the Margin of Error: Risk, Probability & Strategic Decision-Making with Professor Emeritus Dr. Michael Orkin

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Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-strategy-and-leadership-podcast-with-anthony-c-taylor-325713/beyond-the-margin-of-error-risk-probability-strategic-decision-making-with-professor-emeritus-dr-michael-orkin.md
Podcast: [The Strategy and Leadership Podcast with Anthony C. Taylor](https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-strategy-and-leadership-podcast-with-anthony-c-taylor-325713)
Published: 2026-03-03T18:00:00+00:00
Episode link: https://episode.flightcast.com/essn6j02vk3txmmhha7jpfz5.mp3
Audio file: https://episode.flightcast.com/essn6j02vk3txmmhha7jpfz5.mp3
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Duration seconds: 1748

## Resource

In business, leaders make decisions every day under uncertainty. But what if the biggest risk isn’t the one you see — it’s the one you misunderstand? In this episode of the Strategy and Leadership Podcast, host Anthony Taylor sits down with Dr. Michael Orkin, Professor Emeritus of Statistics and author of The Story of Chance: Beyond the Margin of Error, to explore how probability, randomness, and cognitive bias shape executive decision-making. Drawing from decades of experience in statistics, gambling mathematics, and data science, Dr. Orkin explains why leaders often confuse correlation with causation, overestimate their odds of success, and underestimate the role of scale and opportunity in rare events. From lottery math to prediction markets, casino risk models to executive strategy, this conversation reframes how organizations should think about expected value and long-term advantage. Dr. Orkin breaks down why even “positive EV” opportunities can fail if risk is mismanaged, introduces the Kelly Criterion as a disciplined approach to capital allocation, and highlights how cognitive traps can distort judgment at every level of leadership. Anthony and Dr. Orkin explore what it means to increase your “house edge” in business — not through luck, but through disciplined probability thinking, structured decision-making, and clear risk allocation. The episode closes with a powerful reminder: strategy is not about eliminating uncertainty — it’s about making smarter bets under uncertainty. Responsible for strategy? We’ve created Strategic Leadership Foundations — a concise executive course on alignment, decision-making, and execution structure. It’s free, practical, and designed for leaders running the process themselves. Enroll here: https://courses.smestrategy.net/courses/…

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