# Thinking in Bets: Annie Duke on Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts - Greatest Hits! (SB1837)

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-stacking-benjamins-show-745268/thinking-in-bets-annie-duke-on-making-smarter-decisions-when-you-don-t-have-all-the-facts-greatest-hits-sb1837
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-stacking-benjamins-show-745268/thinking-in-bets-annie-duke-on-making-smarter-decisions-when-you-don-t-have-all-the-facts-greatest-hits-sb1837.md
Podcast: [The Stacking Benjamins Show](https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-stacking-benjamins-show-745268)
Published: 2026-05-04T04:00:00+00:00
Episode link: https://pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/345/rss.art19.com/episodes/0b9012fd-7c95-4c7c-a09d-ae5bfe67ceec.mp3?rss_browser=BAhJIg90cmFuc2NyaWJyBjoGRVQ%3D--952c5701c84ad333c69d5faa668f8177091704f0
Audio file: https://pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/345/rss.art19.com/episodes/0b9012fd-7c95-4c7c-a09d-ae5bfe67ceec.mp3?rss_browser=BAhJIg90cmFuc2NyaWJyBjoGRVQ%3D--952c5701c84ad333c69d5faa668f8177091704f0
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Duration seconds: 3752

## Resource

What if the reason your investment decisions feel so hard isn't the market -- it's how you're wired to think about outcomes? Annie Duke spent years as a professional poker player winning over $4 million in tournaments, then devoted the next chapter of her career to understanding why smart people consistently make bad decisions. The answer has nothing to do with intelligence and everything to do with how we confuse results with quality. She brings the full framework down to the basement today. What You'll Walk Away With Why certainty is the enemy of good decision making -- and the mindset shift that makes uncertainty feel like an advantage instead of a threat The Pete Carroll problem: how tying the outcome of a decision to the quality of the decision is quietly wrecking how you evaluate your investments Why being smarter actually makes this bias worse -- and how intelligent people spin data to confirm what they already believe more effectively than anyone else The difference between wanting to be right and wanting to be accurate -- and why that single distinction changes everything about how you process new information How to hold your beliefs as "works in progress" rather than positions to defend -- and why that opens you up to information that actually improves your decisions Why the stock market's short-term volatility is almost never the signal investors treat it as -- and what a 40-year Berkshire Hathaway chart actually tells you The poker table parallel to long-term investing -- and why you can make all the right moves and still lose, which means a bad outcome never proves a bad decision What the Philly Special play reveals about how we reward boldness only when it works -- and what that tells you about how you judge your own financial choices A listener question…

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