# Tariffs, China, and Brazil’s Soy Surge: The Math No One Likes

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Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-national-land-podcast-5511204/tariffs-china-and-brazil-s-soy-surge-the-math-no-one-likes.md
Podcast: [The National Land Podcast](https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-national-land-podcast-5511204)
Published: 2025-10-18T20:54:57+00:00
Episode link: https://nationalland.podbean.com/e/tariffs-china-and-brazil-s-soy-surge-the-math-no-one-likes/
Audio file: https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/b7zzb9vqyek8zdt6/Schnitkey-Tariffs.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/the-national-land-podcast-5511204/episodes/tariffs-china-and-brazil-s-soy-surge-the-math-no-one-likes
Duration seconds: 3290

## Resource

The Midwest row‑crop math is ugly: cash prices are ~$4 corn and ~$10 soybeans against break‑evens near $4.50 (corn) and $11.50 (soybeans). University of Illinois agricultural economist Dr. Gary Schnitkey breaks down what’s driving it and what landowners, operators, and lenders should expect. What we cover Tariffs & trade: No Chinese soybean bookings so far this season; China is favoring Brazil—and financing its export infrastructure. Result: lower U.S. prices now and a tougher long‑run soybean outlook. Cost structure: Seed/fertilizer stayed high; machinery costs jumped ~25% (2021–2023). Million‑dollar combines and pricier parts make scale (or equipment sharing) more critical. Break‑even reality: ~$4.50 corn / ~$11.50 soybeans vs. ~$4/$10 cash—why margins are negative without aid. Government payments: 2024 ad‑hoc aid (~$10B nationally; ~$37/acre in IL) kept incomes from going red; 2025 budgets assume ~$65/acre commodity title payments plus another ECAP‑style package. Policy support is holding up cash rents and land values. Farmland values & rents: Off the peak and largely flat. If payments fade, expect downward pressure; a gradual ~20% decline over time isn’t off the table if current conditions persist. Crop switching & regen: Few viable pivots in the Corn/Soy Belt. Lower prices slow regenerative adoption (transition takes time and can ding yield early). Great Plains likely adjust first. Livestock: Bright spot—cattle margins remain strong. Outlook: Barring a major shock (e.g., Brazil/US drought), expect $4 corn / $10 soybeans to stick. In the meantime, the sector is effectively “going to Washington.” Guest: Dr. Gary Schnitkey, Professor of Agricultural & Consumer Economics, University of Illinois; works with FBFM (Farm Business Farm Management) and Preci…

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