# EP 158: Equilibrium or Explosion?

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-lumber-word-6578824/ep-158-equilibrium-or-explosion
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-lumber-word-6578824/ep-158-equilibrium-or-explosion.md
Podcast: [The Lumber Word](https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-lumber-word-6578824)
Published: 2026-02-26T13:35:15+00:00
Episode link: https://thelumberword.podbean.com/e/ep-158-equilibrium-or-explosion/
Audio file: https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/tah8r4j9gckjdzx6/FEB_2565chj.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/the-lumber-word-6578824/episodes/ep-158-equilibrium-or-explosion
Duration seconds: 2836

## Resource

Kip Fotheringham joins the crew to break down a lumber market that feels coiled. Canadian shipments are down 30% year-over-year. Inventory on the ground is near multi-year lows. Futures are trading at a discount to cash. And dealers are running lean. So are we stuck in a trading range… or one buying shift away from a $100 move? In this episode, the guys debate: Why majors aren’t aggressively EFP’ing Government “support” vs. subsidy risk in Canada Southern Pine regional price spreads What happens if retailers add just 2–3 weeks of inventory Why breakeven doesn’t matter — return on capital does Tariff noise vs. actual lumber exemption rules Is the low already in? Or are we just chopping sideways? Strap in. Timestamps 00:00 – Welcome + Kip joins 02:00 – Cash vs. futures disconnect 04:00 – 30% drop in Canadian shipments 10:00 – Southern Pine update 18:30 – Lean inventories & catalyst discussion 24:00 – Trading range debate 36:00 – Why mills keep running 42:00 – Tariff clarification Guest: Kip Foteringham Independent Trader and Market Analyst kipf@telus.net Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

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## Transcript

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