# #390 Ted Oakley: "It's Not a Normal Market" — A Generational Bear Could Cut Stocks 40%

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803/390-ted-oakley-it-s-not-a-normal-market-a-generational-bear-could-cut-stocks-40
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803/390-ted-oakley-it-s-not-a-normal-market-a-generational-bear-could-cut-stocks-40.md
Podcast: [The Julia La Roche Show](https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803)
Published: 2026-07-16T12:00:00+00:00
Episode link: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/julia-la-roche/episodes/390-Ted-Oakley-Its-Not-a-Normal-Market--A-Generational-Bear-Could-Cut-Stocks-40-e3m502s
Audio file: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/APO1504437850.mp3
Processing state: not_requested
JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803/episodes/390-ted-oakley-it-s-not-a-normal-market-a-generational-bear-could-cut-stocks-40
Duration seconds: 2208

## Resource

In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, returns to discuss his latest letter, "Stick to Your Principles," and why he believes today's market is anything but normal. He warns that 10-12 companies now make up half the S&P 500, speculation via leveraged ETFs is in the billions, and stocks are roughly three standard deviations above the norm — a setup he says could eventually correct 40% or more in a generational bear market. Oakley explains why investor complacency is the biggest mistake he sees, with three-quarters of all financial assets in stocks and Americans over 70 owning a third of the market. He shares where he's finding value now — energy names like Northern Oil & Gas, Kimbell Royalty, and Antero, plus beaten-down gold miners like Agnico Eagle — and recounts the hard lesson he learned chasing hot oil stocks in the late 1970s. His biggest worry: unsustainable government debt. His surprising source of optimism: a severe downturn, which he views as the buying opportunity of a generation. Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168 Timestamps: 0:00 – Introduction: Ted Oakley of Oxbow Advisors returns 0:53 – Semiconductors dominating the market; 10-12 companies are half the S&P 2:10 – "The Gambler": leveraged ETFs and speculation in the billions 3:16 – How leveraged ETFs amplify volatility 4:25 – A market high that "sticks for a while" coming in the next 6-12 months 5:41 – Risk/reward has flipped: 6-8% upsi…

## Actions

- request_transcript: `POST https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803/episodes/390-ted-oakley-it-s-not-a-normal-market-a-generational-bear-could-cut-stocks-40/transcription-requests` — Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode.
- read_markdown: `GET https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803/390-ted-oakley-it-s-not-a-normal-market-a-generational-bear-could-cut-stocks-40.md` — Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource.

A page view does not enqueue transcription. Agents should invoke `request_transcript` explicitly when they need this episode processed.

## Transcript

Full transcripts are not published on public pages unless there is a clear rights basis.