# #369 Melody Wright: 35-50% Housing Correction Needed, First Wave 10-12% Coming

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803/369-melody-wright-35-50-housing-correction-needed-first-wave-10-12-coming
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803/369-melody-wright-35-50-housing-correction-needed-first-wave-10-12-coming.md
Podcast: [The Julia La Roche Show](https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803)
Published: 2026-05-14T10:00:00+00:00
Episode link: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/julia-la-roche/episodes/369-Melody-Wright-35-50-Housing-Correction-Needed--First-Wave-10-12-Coming-e3j9lri
Audio file: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/APO7361224648.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803/episodes/369-melody-wright-35-50-housing-correction-needed-first-wave-10-12-coming
Duration seconds: 2314

## Resource

Melody Wright, author of M3 Melody Substack, returns to the show for an in-person episode to discuss the frozen spring selling season and reveals disturbing signs of distress bubbling beneath the surface, including mortgage delinquencies rising at the exact time of year they should be falling. She exposes the "rage delisting" phenomenon where stubborn sellers refuse price cuts despite a massive inventory buildup, explains why the housing shortage narrative is a myth perpetuated by builders seeking a bailout, and warns that prime mortgages are now showing weakness for the first time. Melody argues that a 35-50% price correction is needed for median household income to afford median home prices, with the first wave of 10-12% likely over the next couple years. She reveals a massive shadow inventory wave from boomers that could add 20% more homes each year for the next decade, discusses how investors are fire selling (one investor dumping 300 rentals in a single market), and predicts the back half of 2026 could be "really ugly" as forbearance programs expire. Her advice: sellers should cut prices quickly to avoid cutting further, while buyers should stay patient because "the supply is coming." Links: YouTube; https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melody X: https://x.com/m3_melody Substack: https://m3melody.substack.com/ Timestamps 0:00 Introduction - Melody Wright returns, spring selling season 1:59 Housing market assessment - "Take three of another year frozen" 5:28 Distress bubbling under the surface 8:15 Why the shortage narrative is so pervasive 11:46 Tracking 86 markets now 15:05 Most worrisome areas - The delusional northeast 16:11 Boomer stubbornness and shadow inventory wave 16:38 How big is the shadow inventory? 20% increase for next 10 years 18:22 How far do prices need to…

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