# #351 Jay Pelosky: The ‘EMification of America’ — The U.S. No Longer Deserves Its Premium Valuation Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803/351-jay-pelosky-the-emification-of-america-the-u-s-no-longer-deserves-its-premium-valuation Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803/351-jay-pelosky-the-emification-of-america-the-u-s-no-longer-deserves-its-premium-valuation.md Podcast: [The Julia La Roche Show](https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803) Published: 2026-03-24T12:00:00+00:00 Episode link: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/julia-la-roche/episodes/351-Jay-Pelosky-The-EMification-of-America--The-U-S--No-Longer-Deserves-Its-Premium-Valuation-e3gspfv Audio file: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/APO5770938217.mp3 Processing state: not_requested JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803/episodes/351-jay-pelosky-the-emification-of-america-the-u-s-no-longer-deserves-its-premium-valuation Duration seconds: 3640 ## Resource Jay Pelosky, founder of TPW Advisory, makes the case that the U.S. no longer deserves its premium valuation — and that the biggest investing opportunity in decades is happening everywhere else. Jay's framework, the Tri-Polar World thesis, argues that regional integration across Europe, Asia and the Americas is the dominant force shaping the global economy. Built on 30+ years of global macro experience, his view is that a global growth long cycle — driven by government and private sector spending on AI, defense and renewable energy — remains firmly intact, and that the Iran conflict may actually accelerate it. His most provocative argument: the "EMification of America." The U.S. is increasingly exhibiting the volatile policymaking, concentrated power and institutional erosion typically associated with emerging markets — and yet still trades at a premium valuation. That, he says, is the disconnect that defines the next decade of investing. Where does he see opportunity? Emerging markets — particularly China and Latin America — copper miners, commodities broadly, and the intersection of renewable energy and autonomous defense technology. He has held no long duration developed market sovereign debt for years. Links: Subscribe to Jay's Substack: https://jaypelosky.substack.com/ Learn more about TPW Advisory: https://pelosky.com/ Timestamps 0:00 — "The US doesn't deserve its premium valuation" 0:26 — Welcome Jay Pelosky 1:00 — Is the global growth long cycle being derailed by Iran? 4:00 — AI, defense & climate as existential government spending drivers 6:30 — Oil price sensitivity today vs. the 1970s — why it's different this time 9:10 — The contrarian take: Iran could actually boost global growth 14:20 — TACO Trump & the search for an off-ramp 18… ## Actions - request_transcript: `POST https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803/episodes/351-jay-pelosky-the-emification-of-america-the-u-s-no-longer-deserves-its-premium-valuation/transcription-requests` — Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode. - read_markdown: `GET https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803/351-jay-pelosky-the-emification-of-america-the-u-s-no-longer-deserves-its-premium-valuation.md` — Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource. A page view does not enqueue transcription. Agents should invoke `request_transcript` explicitly when they need this episode processed. ## Transcript Full transcripts are not published on public pages unless there is a clear rights basis.