# Michael Mauboussin: Base Rates, AI Adoption, and Investing in the Intangible Economy

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-intangible-economy-with-kai-wu-7691953/michael-mauboussin-base-rates-ai-adoption-and-investing-in-the-intangible-economy
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-intangible-economy-with-kai-wu-7691953/michael-mauboussin-base-rates-ai-adoption-and-investing-in-the-intangible-economy.md
Podcast: [The Intangible Economy with Kai Wu](https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-intangible-economy-with-kai-wu-7691953)
Published: 2026-03-31T23:46:04+00:00
Episode link: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/jack-forehand-and-justin-5/episodes/Michael-Mauboussin-Base-Rates--AI-Adoption--and-Investing-in-the-Intangible-Economy-e3h8m4a
Audio file: https://anchor.fm/s/10e9fdc88/podcast/play/117773898/https%3A%2F%2Fd3ctxlq1ktw2nl.cloudfront.net%2Fstaging%2F2026-3-1%2F421191205-44100-2-239c631f3ccdc.mp3
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Duration seconds: 3672

## Resource

This episode of The Intangible Economy explores how AI, intangible assets, and unprecedented capital investment are reshaping the future of markets. Michael Mauboussin joins Kai Wu to break down why today’s AI expectations may be historically unmatched—and what that means for investors trying to assess risk, returns, and who ultimately captures value. The conversation moves from base rates and AI growth expectations to competitive dynamics, capital cycles, and the fundamental shift toward intangible-driven business models that are changing how we think about valuation, moats, and market structure. Papers and Resources Discussed: Bayes and Base Rates: How History Can Guide Our Assessment of the Future https://www.morganstanley.com/im/en-us/institutional-investor/insights/consilient-observer/bayes-and-base-rates.htmlThe Impact of Intangibles on Base Rates – https://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_theimpactofintangiblesonbaserates.pdf Measuring the Moat: Assessing the Magnitude and Sustainability of Value Creation – https://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_measuringthemoat.pdf One Job: Expectations and the Role of Intangible Investments – https://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_onejob.pdf Capitalism Without Capital: The Rise of the Intangible Economy – https://books.google.com/books/about/Capitalism_without_Capital.html?id=J3SYDwAAQBAJ A Better Estimate of Internally Generated Intangible Capital – https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/10.1287/mnsc.2022.01703 Underestimating the Red Queen: Measuring Growth and Maintenance Investments – https://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_underestimatingtheredqueen.pdf Explaining the Recent Failure of Value Investing –…

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