# The U.S. Can't Back Down: The Strait of Hormuz Closure Is Messier Than You Think with Michael Every

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-great-simplification-with-nate-hagens-6364729/the-u-s-can-t-back-down-the-strait-of-hormuz-closure-is-messier-than-you-think-with-michael-every
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-great-simplification-with-nate-hagens-6364729/the-u-s-can-t-back-down-the-strait-of-hormuz-closure-is-messier-than-you-think-with-michael-every.md
Podcast: [The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens](https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-great-simplification-with-nate-hagens-6364729)
Published: 2026-06-12T12:30:00+00:00
Episode link: https://thegreatsimplification.libsyn.com/the-us-cant-back-down-the-strait-of-hormuz-closure-is-messier-than-you-think-with-michael-every
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Duration seconds: 5118

## Resource

This episode was recorded Tuesday, June 9th, before the current 'deal' was floated. Given world events, we decided to post this episode immediately as a special release, and deal or not, this conversation is an excellent overview of the issues and stakes of this evolving situation. In a media environment constantly contradicting itself, with every side proclaiming the advantage for themselves, the reality of what's happening in the Middle East gets lost amidst the day-to-day headlines. But for analysts who have been monitoring the underlying trends of the geopolitical gameboard for years, the direction is clear: the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz will likely not fully resolve within the next few months. If we truly accept the consequences of this, how will our global economy – built on interconnected supply chains and cheap energy – adapt to a geopolitical order fracturing before our eyes? In this episode, Nate is joined by Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank, for an unflinching analysis of the Hormuz crisis and the fundamental principles pointing toward the Strait's closure for several more months. Michael walks through multiple scenarios – a TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), NATO military action, Chinese intervention behind the scenes – and explains why none of them offer an easy exit. The conversation expands to explore what this crisis means for the future of global energy trade, the emergence of rival production blocs, the collapse of demand-side macroeconomics, and the surprising potential for a more equitable world to emerge from the chaos. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or mostly closed into September, which countries hit their breaking point first, and will the order in which they break fundamentally change the balance of geopolitical powe…

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