# Bitcoin in a Bear Market: What's Really Going On?

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Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-flying-frisby-money-markets-and-more-161147/bitcoin-in-a-bear-market-what-s-really-going-on.md
Podcast: [The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more](https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-flying-frisby-money-markets-and-more-161147)
Published: 2026-02-13T14:05:24+00:00
Episode link: https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/p/bitcoin-in-a-bear-market-whats-really
Audio file: https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/187853830/8d677ea0be09bc4726b488eb2a20ed9d.mp3
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Duration seconds: 476

## Resource

An extra piece for you this week. I had planned to follow up on Dr John’s timely piece on oil and gas today, but it will have to wait. We need to talk about bitcoin. Since peaking at $126,000 in early October, the bitcoin price has been in freefall, and the declines have accelerated this year. Earlier in the week, it touched $60,000 - declines of over 50% from peak to trough. Today it sits at $67,000. Call it what it is. It’s a bear market. Here’s a 2-year chart so you can see the price action. All the gains of 2025 have been given back and we are back at 2024 levels. Bitcoin has become a software proxy My first observation is that bitcoin’s decline since October has coincided exactly with a brutal selloff in software stocks, even as hard assets - gold, silver, and other metals - have caught one heck of a bid. Just a few years ago, hard assets had no value, it seemed. Forget land, mining, the real economy. It was all about digital, software, IP, trademarks. How things have changed. This chart appeared in a WhatsApp group and I don’t know who made it to give credit, but the story is clear: Bitcoin has become a software proxy and vice versa. The correlation is striking. As concerns around AI have hammered software more generally, bitcoin has followed. Hardware plays within tech have held up Maybe they're next to be hit. That remains to be seen. When the mainstream media calls the bottom - the next wave of bitcoin obituaries The Financial Times, wrong about bitcoin since 2009, came out with its latest stupidity this week claiming that bitcoin is $69,000 overvalued. Yesterday the D aily Mail joined the Retard Gang in telling us bitcoin will go to zero. Remember: just as media frenzy often indicates the peak of a market, so does a media scrum at the bottom. All we need is a…

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