# Why the Fed Is Watching the Inverted Yield Curve Again

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-federal-reserve-podcast-with-fexingo-interest-rates-fomc-meetings-and-monetary-policy-7871696/why-the-fed-is-watching-the-inverted-yield-curve-again
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-federal-reserve-podcast-with-fexingo-interest-rates-fomc-meetings-and-monetary-policy-7871696/why-the-fed-is-watching-the-inverted-yield-curve-again.md
Podcast: [The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo: Interest Rates, FOMC Meetings, and Monetary Policy](https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-federal-reserve-podcast-with-fexingo-interest-rates-fomc-meetings-and-monetary-policy-7871696)
Published: 2026-07-08T17:56:58+00:00
Episode link: https://audio.fexingo.com/business/the-federal-reserve-podcast/episode-0102.mp3
Audio file: https://audio.fexingo.com/business/the-federal-reserve-podcast/episode-0102.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/the-federal-reserve-podcast-with-fexingo-interest-rates-fomc-meetings-and-monetary-policy-7871696/episodes/why-the-fed-is-watching-the-inverted-yield-curve-again
Duration seconds: 545

## Resource

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years — the longest stretch since the 1970s. This episode digs into why the Fed isn't ignoring it, even as many pundits have declared the yield curve 'broken' as a recession signal. Lucas and Luna walk through the mechanics of the 2-year versus 10-year Treasury spread, now at -74 basis points, and what it tells us about the market's expectations for rate cuts versus the Fed's actual stance. They also examine the 3-month to 10-year spread, which has flattened to just 12 basis points, and what that means for bank lending and the broader economy. No hot takes — just a clear look at a signal that still matters, even after two years of inverted curves. #InvertedYieldCurve #FederalReserve #TreasuryYields #MonetaryPolicy #RecessionSignal #TwoYearTreasury #TenYearTreasury #InterestRates #BondMarket #EconomicIndicators #FOMC #RateCuts #BankLending #CurveSteepener #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Macro Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

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